Fresh polling of the Old Dominion State’s still-new presidential race shows it’s too close to call between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, suggesting a change atop the ticket isn’t juicing Democratic performance in Virginia just yet.
The vice president narrowly leads the former president in both scenarios the Roanoke College survey contemplates.
In a two-way matchup, Harris leads 47% to 44%. It’s 45% to 42% when other candidates are added, with Robert Kennedy Jr. getting 6%, Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver grabbing 2% each, 3% preferring some other candidate and just 2% undecided.
The results dash the hopes of those who believed Harris, who’s been insulated from scrutiny like no other candidate in American history, would be lofted to the presidency on a platform of aspirational phrases devoid of policy specifics.
“The switch from Biden to Harris made a difference in Virginia, but perhaps not as great as some may have thought,” said Harry Wilson, Roanoke College’s Institute for Public Opinion Research senior political analyst and professor emeritus. “The news for Harris is certainly better than it was for Biden, but her three-point lead is still within the margin of error.”
In the last iteration of this poll, back in May, President Biden and Trump were tied at 42%. This is the first Roanoke poll to test the Trump-Harris question.
If Biden had stayed in the race, the poll suggests Trump would be leading in Virginia right now.
When asked in the new survey what their voting plans had been before Biden’s withdrawal, respondents gave Trump a 6-point lead (although the candidates were tied in May). Some who’d planned to vote for other candidates appear to have changed their minds, and 3% said they hadn’t planned to vote in a Biden-Trump matchup.
A big problem for the Democratic nominee: Independent voters in this survey aren’t buying what she’s selling.
In the race with multiple minor candidates, Trump takes 50%, with 34% going for the vice president.
While Harris does somewhat better in a binary battle, she still faces a double-digit deficit among unaligned voters, with Trump ahead 47% to 35%.
Harris’ problems with independent voters are offset by Democrats, who are more on board with her candidacy at this point than Virginia Republicans are with Trump’s.
In a head-to-head matchup, Harris takes 90% of Dems, with 4% breaking for Trump; 85% of Republicans back Trump, with 8% saying they’ll cross party lines.
In the expanded field, Harris leads Trump with Democrats 88% to 3%. Republicans prefer Trump 81% to 5%.
But at least in the reckoning of Roanoke’s polling director, Trump and Harris are doing well enough with their respective bases.
“Both candidates are polling very well within their party, and there is a miniscule [sic] number of undecided voters. The party bases remain important, as always. The number who say they will vote third party is declining, and those voters may well determine who wins in Virginia,” Wilson added, contextualizing the results.
The polling also considered running mates JD Vance and Tim Walz and suggests neither man is exciting Virginia voters: “44% are either dissatisfied or angry with the choice of Walz (30% dissatisfied; 14% angry), and Vance fares even worse (32% dissatisfied; 18% angry).”
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Walz has 64% approval among Democrats, while Vance is at 62% with Republicans. Only 27% of independents approve of the Minnesota governor, but the Ohio senator’s 32% approval with unaligned voters doesn’t exactly give him bragging rights.
And though the race at the top of the ticket is close, this poll shows what so many others throughout the country do regarding Trump’s coattails.
Even if the former prez wins in November, Republican Hung Cao is doomed in the Senate race. Incumbent Tim Kaine leads his challenger 49% to 38%.
Cao is regarded favorably by just 28% of respondents and disapproved of by 47%. Even with GOP voters, his favorable rating is an anemic 50%.
For this survey, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College polled 691 likely voters between Aug. 12 and 16 with a weighted margin of error of +/- 4.5%.
