DETROIT — Presidential candidates from both parties frequently visit battleground Michigan. But its swing-state status could evaporate if Michigan lends its 15 votes to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, as Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz did in his state last year.
The compact is a vote pledge between states designed to subvert the Electoral College. Since America’s first presidential race, the country has used the Electoral College to select presidents — but this movement seeks to upend that tradition.
In 2024 there are 538 electors, split between the 50 states and Washington, DC. It takes a majority of electoral votes — 270 or more — to win the presidency. The compact would take effect when 270 states’ worth of votes sign on. The states in the compact would vote as a bloc for whichever candidate was the top vote-getter nationwide — even if the candidate didn’t win that state.
In 2016, Donald Trump won Michigan by 10,000 votes. If Michigan were a nationa-popular-vote state and the compact was live at that time, Hillary Clinton would have won all 16 of its electoral votes.
In 48 states, including Michigan, the top vote-getter wins every electoral vote. In two states, Maine and Nebraska, votes are allocated by congressional district, with extra awarded to the statewide winner.
In all 50 states, the winning vote-getter in that state wins at least a majority of its electoral votes. A national popular vote would open the door to the first loser-takes-all system in American history.
I participated in a televised debate last year with the sponsor of the Michigan push for the idea, Democratic state Rep. Carrie Rheingans.
When I noted that under national popular vote, a candidate could lose all 7 million votes in Michigan but still win the state, Rheingans responded that never in Great Lakes State history have all 7 million voted one way — admitting the loser-takes-all nature of the plan even while denying the scenario.
In Michigan, the compact has been on the back-burner since reaching the House floor last year. This June and last, Rheingans tried to drum up interest in the bill before summer vacation. The matter has not yet been brought up for a vote.
A House Republican source familiar with the bill told The Post that if Democratic leadership wanted it passed, it likely would be. And since Democrats hold a 56-54 edge in the Michigan House, the fact that it hasn’t passed means the caucus is not united, the source said, adding there are no House Republicans interested in crossing the aisle to pass the bill.
Republican state Rep. Jamie Greene said Michigan should not join Minnesota in the pact and told The Post the proposal is “an underhanded attempt to sidestep the Constitution and undermine the checks and balances of the Electoral College.”
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“By forcing Michigan to follow the decisions made in other states, this scheme effectively strips our voters of their choice in presidential elections,” Greene continued. “We shouldn’t follow Minnesota down this dangerous path that sacrifices our state’s interests to the whims of larger states.”
This November, the entire Michigan House is up for election, so lawmaking has slowed as reps campaign to hold onto their seats.
After losing their majority in 2022, Michigan Republicans are eager to take it back. If they succeed, the Republican source warned, the Democrats might make a last-minute push for the compact.
“There’s a lot of things they don’t have the political will to do now, that they might do in lame duck if they lose their majority,” the source told The Post.
Last year, Minnesota pledged its 10 votes to the compact under Walz’s leadership. This year, Maine pledged its own four.
That means if the compact went live, Maine would no longer grant its electoral votes on a district-by-district basis — all four would go to the top nationwide vote-getter.
