3 most likely NBA teams in each conference to win championship

With about five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, we have a pretty clear picture of the contenders for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. 

There have been seven different champions over the last seven seasons. Will that trend continue and a new team be crowned this season? Or will the Thunder repeat as champions? 

As the regular season winds down, here are the three most likely teams in each conference to reach the mountaintop in June. 

Western Conference

Oklahoma City: Heading into this season, the Thunder were the favorites to win another title. They cemented that narrative by sprinting to a 24-1 start while former All-Star Jalen Williams only played in six games over that period. It seemed as though they weren’t only going to win, they were going to lap the field.

But a few teams have decided to play the spoiler to that storyline, most notably the Spurs in the West. The first sign that the Thunder had some real competition was when San Antonio beat them in the semifinal of the NBA Cup in Las Vegas in December. The Spurs have gone on to win four of their five matchups against the Thunder this season. 

Meanwhile, the Thunder have struggled with injuries after their hot start. Williams has had trouble staying in the lineup, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, had an extended nine-game absence due to an abdominal strain. And various role players have missed time because of health. 

While the Thunder remain the front-runners with the NBA’s best record (50-15) through Saturday night, they’re no longer considered shoo-ins for the title. Winning back-to-back championships is hard and a lot of teams are nipping at the Thunder’s heels, most notably the Spurs who have somehow solved the riddle of OKC’s top-rated defense. 

San Antonio: Welp, the Spurs’ ascension has been fast. They went from not even making the playoffs last season to being considered real contenders, all because a certain 22-year-old, 7-foot-5 Frenchman is living up to his potential. 

Victor Wembanyama recently helped the Spurs win 11 games in a row. They’re peaking at the right time.

But are the Spurs really ready for the NBA throne? Or will they need another year or two of playoff experience before being able to win multiple best-of-seven series on the NBA’s biggest stage?

This much is sure: Wembanyama’s care factor is through the roof. He became emotional after leading the Spurs to roar back from a 25-point deficit to beat the Clippers on Friday, 116-112, calling it “one of the best games I’ve been a part of in my career.” He’s going to win a title, it’s just a matter of when.

Denver: The Nuggets know what it takes to win after reaching the mountaintop in 2023. Heck, even last season they even took the Thunder to seven games in the second round of the playoffs. 

Nikola Jokic, who missed 16 straight games due to left knee hyperextension before returning at the end of January, is arguably the world’s best player. 

The Nuggets’ biggest issue now is their supporting cast. Aaron Gordon missed 17 straight games because of a hamstring injury before returning to the lineup Friday. And Peyton Watson has missed 12 straight games because of a hamstring injury.

The Nuggets need Gordon and Watson to play well in the postseason to make it out of the West.  

Honorable mention

Minnesota: The Timberwolves have underperformed this season. But they have a way of coming alive during the playoffs, spurred by Anthony Edwards. So, this team is my dark horse.

They’ve reached the Western Conference finals two seasons in a row and know how to turn up the volume when things count most. (Read: Rudy Gobert looking like Shaquille O’Neal last postseason against the Lakers in Game 5 of their first-round series with a 27-point, 24-rebound performance. Or Edwards regularly drawing comparisons to Michael Jordan during the Timberwolves’ 2024 playoff run.)

Eastern Conference

New York: The Knicks shouldn’t be underestimated. They’re seemingly lying in wait to hijack the East when the timing is right. Yes, they’re 0-3 against the Pistons (and five games behind them through Saturday night). But this is a team that wasn’t expected to reach the Eastern Conference finals last season, and we all saw their spectacular playoff run.  

The Knicks, who are third in the East (41-23), added Jose Alvarado, who’s as scrappy as they come. And Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart want revenge after what happened last season against the Pacers in the penultimate round. You know, when Tyrese Haliburton went from being voted the most overrated player in the league by his peers in a poll by The Athletic to becoming one of the most clutch playoff performers ever.

Cleveland: The Cavaliers fell short last postseason, folding in the first round against the Pacers as Donovan Mitchell struggled with an ankle injury. They’ve since traded Darius Garland for James Harden and seem as though they’re chomping at the bit to bring Cleveland its first championship since 2016. 

The Cavs have the talent. The question is whether they can put it all together and be healthy enough to make a strong postseason run. 

Boston: Remember when this team was expected to tank this season after Jayson Tatum suffered a torn Achilles last May and then they lost Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford and Luke Kornet during the offseason?

Well, the joke is on everyone who underestimated Jaylen Brown, who has helped the Celtics become the biggest surprise of the season. They’re in second place in the East (42-21). LeBron James even recently questioned why Brown isn’t getting more consideration for the MVP Award. Oh, and guess what, Tatum returned Friday against the Mavericks.

Honorable mention

Detroit: Where did the Pistons come from? Sure, last postseason they took the Knicks to six games in their first-round playoff series. But no one expected them to have the East’s best record this season (45-17) and Cade Cunningham to be an MVP front-runner.

But I’m still not sold. I know, I know. This is going to upset some readers. Sure, the Pistons have the second-best defensive rating in the NBA (109.4) behind the Thunder (107.3). But can a team with the 11th-best offense (116.6) really go far in the postseason? I have my doubts. Also, how’s this for a stat: The Pistons haven’t won a playoff series since 2008.

Going from that to a championship seems far-fetched, to say the least. 

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