On Thursday night, the Seahawks host the 49ers in a pivotal NFC West matchup with potential playoff implications.
Both teams enter the matchup looking to bounce back from home losses as big favorites.
Let’s dive into the matchup, which is sure to hold significance down the line.
When the Seahawks have the ball
As the Seahawks fell behind the Giants on Sunday, they completely abandoned the run game.
They had a 15% early down rushing rate, and Kenneth Walker III finished with just five carries for 19 yards against a beatable run defense.
Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb spoke about his desire to rectify that, and I’d expect to see a heavy dose of Walker early against the Seahawks.
Geno Smith has had an excellent season in the new Grubb offense, ranking second in the league in passing success rate and 13th in adjusted EPA/play.
That’s even more impressive when you consider the Seahawks rank just 30th in pass-block win rate and have struggled to keep the pocket clean for him.
That could become an issue against the 49ers’ sixth-ranked pass-rush unit.
When the 49ers have the ball
In Christian McCaffrey’s absence, Jordan Mason has filled in admirably, ranking second in the NFL with 536 rushing yards.
He could be in for another big game against a Seahawks defensive front dealing with significant injury woes.
Uchenna Nwosu, Byron Murphy II and Derick Hall are all in danger of missing this game.
At the same time, cornerback Tariq Woolen is also questionable.
Brock Purdy is having a highly efficient season, ranking eighth in adjusted EPA/play and success rate.
After some early injury issues in the receiving corps, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are healthy and ready to attack a Seattle defense whose metrics are declining by the week.
The Seahawks ranked as high as second in defensive DVOA earlier in the season, taking advantage of a schedule that included quarterbacks Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson.
However, the Lions and Giants have exposed their defense over the last two weeks.
One area where the 49ers have struggled is in the red zone, where they rank just 29th in touchdown rate.
Losing McCaffrey certainly hurts, but I’d expect some positive regression looming for San Francisco in finishing drives with touchdowns.
Final verdict
I had high hopes for the Seahawks entering the season, but this is a brutal spot for them.
They are playing their third game in 11 days, and with injuries mounting on the defensive front, the 49ers have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
In divisional games where both teams are on short rest, the favorites and road teams tend to have the advantage.
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Over the last 20 years, favorites have gone 98-79-5 against the spread (55%), and road teams are 99-77-5 ATS (54%).
In his short NFL career, Purdy is 9-13 ATS when favored by four or more points but 8-2 ATS when favored by 3.5 points or less or priced as an underdog.
On the other hand, Geno Smith is 3-10 SU in night games and 3-9 SU in games on short rest in his career, the fourth-worst mark of 218 quarterbacks on the moneyline over the last 20 years, according to Action Network.
Given the matchup and historical trends, I can only look to the 49ers -3.5 (-105, BetMGM) in this game if I’m picking a side.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
