Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri highlights his keys to victory in Week 5.
The pick-up-and-play is … Dontayvion Wicks
Wicks will see an expanded role in Week 5 with Christian Watson out. In Week 4 once Watson left with injury, Wicks led the Packers with a 25% target share. Overall, he saw a team-high 13 targets and turned this into a 78-yard, two-touchdown performance. Wicks was clearly a priority target for Jordan Love in Week 4.
According to Jacob Gibbs, Wicks ranks fifth in fantasy points per route run since the start of 2023. He’s a talented receiver who will now see more snaps in a strong Week 5 matchup. Wicks will face the Rams, who allow the most passing yards per play this season. Three different receivers have totaled 130+ yards against L.A. this season. You can start Wicks with confidence this week.
The best spot of the week belongs to … Brian Thomas Jr. vs. IND
He quietly ranks 12th in efficiency this season, as a rookie. Thomas has earned at least 10 fantasy points in three of four games this year and has two top-20 finishes during this stretch. This is impressive considering his QB is struggling. Trevor Lawrence ranks 32nd in the NFL in completion percentage, completing just 53% of his passes, only Anthony Richardson has been worse.
Thomas has produced despite this poor QB play and now gets a great matchup. He’ll face the Colts who have allowed opposing No. 1 outside receivers to average 100.5 yards per game this season. George Pickens just produced 119 yards last week against Indy. Start Thomas in Week 5.
The sketchy spot of the week belongs to … Breece Hall vs MIN
Hall managers have been stressed out the past few weeks. Since Week 2, Hall has produced 13.3 fantasy points per game while his backup Braelon Allen has earned 10.7 points per game. They’ve been splitting the workload more than expected and, in Week 4, Hall earned just four yards on 10 carries.
The Jets’ run-blocking has been a big problem. New York ranks 30th in rushing yards per contact this season according to NFL Pro. That’s not great and neither is this week’s matchup for the Jets. Hall will face the Vikings who allow the third-fewest rushing yards per play. Starting running backs average just 52 yards per game against Minnesota.
You still have to start Hall, but temper your expectations this week.
Chase Brown is trending up
Brown is coming off his best week of the year. He earned a season-high 42% of the Bengals snaps and led the backfield in both carries and production. Brown turned 17 touches into 92 yards and two touchdowns. What’s most encouraging is he converted on both of his goal-to-go carries from three yards and one yard out, respectively.
Through four games, Brown leads the NFL in broken tackle rate and true yards per carry according to Player Profiler. He also has seen the fourth-highest rate of light boxes, and this should continue because defenses have to focus their attention on Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Brown is trending up in this Bengals backfield and he’s a player you should trade for if you can.
Rashid Shaheed is trending up
Shaheed is coming off another strong game. In fact, this was a career-high performance for Shaheed in many regards. He earned a career-high 11 targets and turned this into eight catches for 83 yards. Through four games, Shaheed leads the Saints with a 32% first-read target share, according to Fantasy Points data.
But what’s most encouraging to me is how the Saints are using him. We are getting more than just downfield usage. Shaheed is seeing lots of middle-of-the-field targets that allow him to catch and run in space.
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One key play to note from Week 4 was on a 3rd-and-3 in the third quarter. Shaheed was put in motion across the formation and Derek Carr rolled out and hit Shaheed for a six-yard gain and a first down. We didn’t see this type of usage for Shaheed last season. He’s trending up in a major way after his zero-point performance in Week 3.
Travis Etienne Jr. is trending down
Etienne’s role is starting to become a concern. In Week 4, he earned a season-low 51% of the snaps and just 45% of the backfield carries. It’s important to note that Etienne left the game for a few plays in the first half due to a shoulder injury. But even if we account for these missed snaps, this was still the worst usage of the year for Etienne.
Backup Tank Bigsby was back and healthy in Week 4. He’s now seen his normal role in two games this season, not limited by injury. In both contests, he outproduced Etienne on the ground. Bigsby now ranks second in the NFL averaging 8.2 yards per touch on his 21 carries this season. Etienne ranks 36th averaging 4.6 yards per touch.
This Jaguars offense needs playmakers right now. Coach Doug Pederson’s job could be on the line in Week 5. Expect him to play his most productive players and right now, Bigsby is one of those guys. Try to trade Etienne away if you can.
The must-start of the week is … Rome Odunze vs. CAR
Odunze is coming off a poor game. He had just one catch for 10 yards in Week 4 against the Rams. But this wasn’t his fault. The Bears passing offense struggled because of their offensive line. Caleb Williams had no time to throw, resulting in no Bears receiver topping 25 yards in Week 4.
But this week is the perfect bounce-back spot for Odunze. He’ll face the Panthers who rank 31st in pass rush through four games, according to PFF. Williams should have plenty of time to throw and Carolina allows the sixth-most passing yards per play according to NFL Pro.
One more thing: Keenan Allen returned from injury last week but Odunze still played ahead of him in the majority of two-WR sets. Start Odunze this week.
The buy-low of the week is … Jaxon Smith-Njigba
He’s currently 22nd in expected fantasy points per game but just 32nd in actual points, according to PFF. This means his role is great, but the points haven’t followed … yet. Sometimes these expected points don’t matter if your offense or QB are bad, but that’s not the case for Smith-Njigba. Seattle ranks 11th in EPA per play on offense and Geno is second in completion rate, completing 72% of his passes according to NFL Pro.
Smith-Njigba earned a 23% target share in Week 4. It’s the second time this season he’s earned at least 23% of the targets. This is an offense I want pieces of and Smith-Njigba is the most affordable piece with upside. His upcoming schedule against the Giants, Rams and 49ers twice is appealing.
Buy low on Smith-Njigba — send away someone like Brian Robinson Jr. or Tony Pollard for him if you can.
The bounce-back of the week is … Najee Harris vs. DAL
Harris was bad last week. He earned just 19 rushing yards on 13 carries. But this needs more context because the Steelers were without three starting linemen. Not only that, but Harris entered Week 4 with an injury. His production was bad on the ground, but this context is needed.
Fast-forward to this week as Harris takes on the Cowboys. This is a strong matchup at home, Dallas allows the second-highest EPA per rush attempt this season, according to NFL Pro. Harris is earning 20 opportunities per game this season. He’s struggled with efficiency, but the usage is too good to ignore, especially during the fantasy bye weeks.
Start Harris, who may see a larger workload if Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson don’t play in Week 5 due to injury.
