Bookmakers and bettors follow every piece of information, and so when news came out Thursday that Arch Manning — Heisman favorite and starting Texas Longhorns QB — was unlikely to enter the 2026 NFL Draft, it created some shock waves.
Even if that news came via an issue of Texas Monthly, with grandfather Archie Manning saying in the piece, regarding the 2026 draft: “Arch isn’t going to do that. He’ll be at Texas.”
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Manning had been the favorite to be drafted No. 1 overall at sportsbooks, but his odds shifted significantly on Thursday afternoon.
Depending on the book, Penn State QB Drew Allar or LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier is now favored to go No. 1 overall in next year’s draft, which will be held April 23-25 in Pittsburgh. Manning now has the fifth-highest odds at around +850.
There will be certainly be more odds changes between now and next year’s draft in the first overall pick market. Recall that at this time last year, former Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders was the favorite to go No. 1 overall at +300, followed by Miami (FL) QB Cam Ward (+450) and Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter (+750). Ward went No. 1, Hunter No. 2 and Sanders fell to the fifth round.
A quarterback has been selected No. 1 overall in seven of the past eight NFL drafts (Jacksonville took DE Travon Walker with the first pick in 2022).
