I think Gonzaga is a legitimate National Title contender this season.
It’s rare to see so much returning production for a powerhouse program in the transfer portal era, but Mark Few returns over 80% of last year’s minutes.
Meanwhile, Baylor lost three starters to the NBA draft and will turn over its backcourt again. Still, the Bears are loaded with offensive talent.
It’s the defensive side of the ball where things get tricky in Waco.
Read on for my Baylor vs Gonzaga predictions and college basketball picks for this monster opening night matchup.
Baylor vs. Gonzaga Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | +6 (-108) | +200 | Over 156.5 (-110) |
| Gonzaga | -6 (-112) | -245 | Under 156.5 (-110) |
Baylor vs. Gonzaga Prediction
(11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
The Bears run a spread pick-and-roll attack predicated on athletic guard play and elite shooting.
This roster will have no problem executing.
Five-star recruit VJ Edgecombe should be the next freshman phenom in Waco, as he’s a legit go-to offensive option that will dominate in ball screens.
Returning wings Jayden Nunn and Langston Love each shot over 44% from deep last year, and head coach Scott Drew pulled in two elite inside-out weapons from the portal in Jeremy Roach (43% from 3 last year with Duke) and Norchad Omier (35% from 3 last year with Miami).
The offense should play against Gonzaga, as I expect the Bulldogs’ ball-screen coverage to regress after the team lost superstar defender Anton Watson to graduation in the offseason.
Conversely, Baylor’s defense has fallen off a cliff in the past few seasons, as Drew’s patented no-middle scheme has lost its fastball.
The Bears’ interior defense was abhorrent last year (52% 2-point shooting allowed, 257th nationally), and their transition defense was similarly leaky (1.09 PPP allowed, 20th percentile).
That bodes poorly against the Zags, who pressure the rim relentlessly in transition.
And, again, I don’t expect a drop-off in production with all that returning production.
Graham Ike is among the best interior-scoring big men in the nation, Ben Gregg is a matchup problem in the frontcourt, and the wing corps is deep and explosive (especially with Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi and Arkansas transfer Khalif Battle in the mix).
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Baylor vs Gonzaga pick
Ultimately, I expect a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. Both potent offenses have clear and easy paths to points against the opposing defense.
Pick: Over 156.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
