The Bills roll into Houston as 5.5-point road favorites, but this matchup looks far tighter than that number suggests.
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Buffalo is coming off a fireworks show against Tampa Bay, yet it still hasn’t lined up against a defense with Houston’s pedigree, especially on a short week.
With the Texans grinding out wins in three of their last four and owning a defense built to slow elite quarterbacks, this shapes up as a far more balanced Thursday night duel than the spread implies.
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What our Post expert thinks about Bills vs. Texans
Houston’s defense is allowing a league-low 16.3 points per game, and its stinginess has kept the average Texans contest under 40 total points.
Last season’s meeting wasn’t a fluke — Houston not only beat Buffalo, it outgained the Bills by 149 yards, a reminder of the matchup problems this defense creates.
And while Davis Mills may get the nod again, his efficiency plus a Bills defense that’s coughed up 62 points in two weeks adds another layer of volatility to a game already loaded with sharp statistical edges.
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
