Buzz: A closer look at what to make of Bengals not activating Joe Burrow for Week 12

Everything that happens in the NFL has additional context when viewed from a fantasy football perspective. From position battles to injuries and so much more, the news cycle will constantly affect player values in fantasy football.

Our Fantasy Football Buzz file, with contributions from our ESPN fantasy writers and our NFL Nation reporters, aims to provide fantasy managers with the intel they need as news breaks around the league.

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Is Thanksgiving still Joe Burrow‘s likeliest return date?

By Stephania Bell

Burrow (turf toe) won’t be activated off IR for Week 12’s game against New England after putting in back-to-back full practices this Wednesday and Thursday, the first time he had done so since undergoing surgery in September. Burrow was limited on Friday, ceding the full reps to Joe Flacco. With the Bengals playing on Thanksgiving Day against Baltimore in Week 13, there are only three recovery days between their next two games, which factored into the decision to hold Burrow out on Sunday.

There is no question Burrow is ready to return as it relates to medical clearance. After all, his clearance to participate in practice last week was the first indication that his surgeon and the Bengals medical staff were satisfied he had met the criteria to begin football activity. His ability to practice all week and then ramp up to full practices this week shows he has checked all the boxes necessary to progressively increase his workload. So what’s left?

The final test is return to play, and, as with any return from injury, there is no way to fully replicate the demands of being chased by opposing defenses whose goal it is to bring a player to the ground or the endurance of four quarters of football.

The concern with that type of stress so soon after returning might not be so much for the repair but rather for the risk of secondary injury as a result. An average recovery from turf toe repair — which includes reconstruction of the fibrous plantar plate that reinforces the joint at the base of the big toe — ranges from 10 to 14 weeks, if all goes well. In other words, range of motion at the big toe has to be adequately restored to allow for push-off, the calf strength has to be at least 90%+ of the opposite side, and the functional ability to play football has to be in place.

For Burrow to be this far along at just shy of 10 weeks is a testament to everyone involved in his case, but especially Burrow himself — his work ethic is well established. Reports out of practice indicate he looks like his pre-injury self and is throwing the ball well. One advantage for him was that his injury was to his left foot, not the right foot, where he would be required to drive the ball through his repaired toe. He also will likely be wearing a carbon-fiber insert that increases the rigidity of the shoe, particularly along the medial side, where the repair is, helping mitigate hyperextension stress.

But Burrow can help himself by avoiding the takedowns that would have him caught in a pile, particularly in a position that would reproduce the same stress that caused his initial turf toe injury. Burrow has proved he is ready to return, but taking all the factors into consideration surrounding his recovery, pushing it back to Thanksgiving and buying a little extra time makes sense.

Which Bills, Texans players should be rostered going forward?

By Eric Moody

• The Bills’ receiver room remained chaotic against the Texans, but the one steady piece remains Khalil Shakir. He led all Buffalo wideouts in snaps, routes, targets (10) and fantasy points (17.0). Keon Coleman was inactive for the second straight game, Curtis Samuel missed time with elbow and neck injuries, and Tyrell Shavers wasn’t targeted. With the Bills rotating everyone else, Shakir is the only receiver worth rostering. He’s averaged 6.4 targets and 11.5 fantasy points per game. Coleman is droppable after consecutive healthy scratches.

• James Cook III finished with 20 touches and 21.9 fantasy points, but even with Cook getting 17 rushing attempts, Ty Johnson continues to play a similar number of snaps and run a similar number of routes. As a result, Johnson keeps taking targets away, and he finished with three receptions for 45 yards. Johnson doesn’t carry standalone value, but he does cut into Cook’s upside and is the insurance back to roster in case Cook were to miss time, so he belongs on benches.

• The Texans used single-receiver sets against the Bills more than they had in all of their previous games combined. Nico Collins remains a must-start, but Jayden Higgins should be rostered in more leagues after running the second-most routes among Houston’s wideouts on Thursday. Higgins has seen at least seven targets in three straight games and has scored 13 or more fantasy points in two of his last three.

• Woody Marks dominated the Texans backfield in snaps played, routes run and touches (17). Nick Chubb finished with only seven touches. Over his last three games, Marks has averaged 17.3 touches per game. He’s the clear No. 1 in the Texans backfield.

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Beyond the numbers: What Stevenson’s return means for Henderson

By Tristan H. Cockcroft

With the news that Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) is expected to practice Wednesday, and perhaps return to action in Week 12, TreVeyon Henderson‘s fantasy managers can’t help but let out a collective groan.

Henderson has been outstanding in his three starts filling in for Stevenson, totaling a third-best-among-running-backs 73.0 fantasy points and joining De’Von Achane, Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne Jr. and Kyren Williams as the only running backs to finish in the top 15 at the position in scoring each week. It’s a dramatic turnaround for the rookie, who totaled only 52.7 points in his 154 offensive snaps played across his first eight NFL games (he has played 156 snaps the past three weeks).

What’s most frustrating about Henderson’s outlook over the final six weeks of the fantasy season (presuming your league excludes Week 18) is that the New England Patriots have the most favorable schedule among running backs during that time span, and that’s in spite of still having the bye ahead of them (Week 14) as well as another favorable season-finale matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Henderson’s dreamy schedule begins with a matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals this week, but considering the remainder is similarly soft (NYG, bye, BUF, @BAL, @NYJ), it’d be understandable if his fantasy managers are thinking, “Gosh, we’d sure like to see Henderson start all of those.”

Tuck that away if you’re evaluating trades over the next week, as Henderson isn’t at all the sell-high candidate he might seem due to Stevenson’s impending return as well as the bye week stealing one of his six remaining weeks.

Here are some other statistically-oriented insights to consider for Week 12:

• Speaking of those running back schedules, we welcome back No. 2 overall scorer Jonathan Taylor (273.9 fantasy points, trailing only Christian McCaffrey’s 283.9), and No. 1 when using per-game averages (27.4 to No. 2 McCaffrey’s 25.8), from his bye week, only to see him draw the most challenging schedule among running backs the rest of the way. Keep this in mind, however: Taylor’s schedule to date ranks 28th, only further accentuating how extraordinary his season has been. He’s the very definition of a matchup-proof player.

• Taylor’s Indianapolis Colts have had one of the toughest schedules across the board thus far, but one player who aligns well for the upcoming six weeks is tight end Tyler Warren, whose schedule is the second-most favorable at the position. He’s second at the position in target share (21.0%) and third in red zone targets (12), a hefty role that makes him a sneaky good bet to top his position in scoring from this point forward despite his having been overshadowed by the huge performances by Brock Bowers, George Kittle and Trey McBride over the past month.

• Only two quarterbacks have finished top 10 in positional scoring in each of the past three weeks: Josh Allen and Jacoby Brissett. Additionally, only Allen (25.9), Jaxson Dart (25.0) and Joe Flacco (21.9) have averaged more fantasy points per game than Brissett (21.3) since he became the Arizona Cardinals‘ starter entering Week 6. Fantasy managers could do worse than having Brissett as a superflex/two-quarterback secondary starter or streaming option in standard leagues, considering he has a middle-ranking remaining schedule that’s easy to navigate amont his favorable (JAX, Week 12; @TB, Week 13; ATL, Week 16; @CIN, Week 17) and unfavorable matchups (LAR, Week 14; @HOU, Week 15).

• A.J. Brown is right to bring to light his modest fantasy production this season, as he has been one of his position’s most inconsistent players all year. Brown already has three games in which he scored fewer than four fantasy points, more than he has had in any of his previous six NFL seasons. He has also scored 22-plus points in only two games, after doing so in at least three games in each of those past six years. Fortunately for Brown optimists, his Philadelphia Eagles have the second-best remaining wide receiver schedules, including four top-shelf matchups (@DAL, Week 12; CHI, Week 13; LV, Week 15; @WSH, Week 16) in which to improve in the latter department.

• Minnesota Vikings wide receivers are suffering in terms of production under the first-year (as a starter, that is) struggles of quarterback J.J. McCarthy, not to mention during Carson Wentz‘s five fill-in starts. All three of the team’s top options at the position — Justin Jefferson (3.2 fewer touchdowns than expected, the league’s most in that direction), Jordan Addison (minus-1.2) and Jalen Nailor (minus-2.0) — have noticeably underperformed in the touchdown department. Fortunately for them, they match the Eagles for the second most-favorable remaining wide receiver schedule, though McCarthy desperately needs to improve his level of accuracy for significant improvement amongst the receivers to come to fruition. He has league worsts with his 50.5% completion percentage, is second-worst with his 25.3% off-target rate and is third-worst with his 5.1% interception rate the past three weeks.

See also: Matchup rankings | Potential playoff heroes

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Why Michael Penix Jr.’s season is over

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What Ja’Marr Chase‘s suspension means for the Bengals’ offense in Week 12

By Tristan Cockroft

Chase’s one-game suspension — which he’s appealing — takes a critical player away from Cincinnati’s passing game at a time when its individuals might otherwise have been appealing fantasy plays due to a plus-matchup against the New England Patriots. Over the past five weeks, the Patriots have been the sixth-best matchup for opposing quarterbacks (+4.1 adjusted fantasy points added), fourth best for wide receivers (+4.8) and fifth best for tight ends (+4.0), with similar rankings at those positions even if using full-season data.

The matchup still makes players such as Joe Flacco (available in 59.1% of ESPN leagues) and Noah Fant (96.8%) worthwhile streaming options in the right formats, but the Bengals’ chances overall take a noticeable step backward as a result of Chase’s absence, which makes either player a less attractive fantasy play. The oddsmakers’ numbers illustrate this best: The Cincinnati-New England game that opened the week with a 50.5 point over/under, tied for second highest on the Week 12 schedule, has seen that number drop to 48.5, and the Patriots, originally 5.5-point favorites, are now 9.5-point favorites despite the game being played in Cincinnati.

WR Tee Higgins is arguably the only true benefactor of this news, elevating to the role of Flacco’s clear No. 1 target this week. Higgins has averaged 20.0 fantasy points in Chase’s five absences since the beginning of the 2022 season, and that’s a reasonable — albeit slightly optimistic — output for him. Consider Flacco a midrange superflex/QB2, Chase Brown a RB2, Andrei Iosivas a WR3/flex for larger leagues and Fant merely a desperation dart throw for this week’s game.

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Week 11 was a rough one for many superstars

By Tristan H. Cockcroft

If you were frustrated with your fantasy superstar’s poor scoring, or felt that this was an unusually low-scoring week for fantasy football as a whole, you aren’t wrong in that impression.

Aside from perhaps Josh Allen, who managed a quarterback-record third career 40-point performance, Week 11 was an especially rough one for the game’s biggest stars. Among the top 20 active, non-bye-week players in terms of average fantasy points per game entering the week — meaning the 20 best performers to play in Week 11 — the group averaged 5.4 points fewer than their seasonal rates, a greater decline than we’ve seen in any week all year (excluding the first three weeks, when the sample was far too small for comparison).

To use total points scored for another illustration, players started in at least 70% of ESPN leagues in Week 11 averaged 13.7 fantasy points. That’s more than two fewer points than the 70%-started group averaged in any of the previous seven weeks.

Almost no player was immune to the downturn in scoring: Lamar Jackson (4.72 FPTS), Ja’Marr Chase (6.0), Amon-Ra St. Brown (6.2), Justin Herbert (3.34), Ladd McConkey (4.3) and Emeka Egbuka (9.0) all had rough weeks. From a team perspective, the Los Angeles Chargers scored six points and totaled 135 yards in their entire game.

This dearth of scoring from top talents accentuated Allen’s 42.68 fantasy points, more than 7.5 points ahead of the second-best player at any position (Christian McCaffrey, whose 35.1 points also probably played a major factor in many matchups). Week 11 had those two, then seven 29-plus-point performers, among whom were four players started in fewer than 17% of ESPN leagues: Sean Tucker (34.0), Michael Wilson (34.0), Bryce Young (31.82) and Kenneth Gainwell (29.5).

So if you felt alone in your team underperforming this week, or were puzzled by how your opponent was able to topple your solid squad with the likes of Tucker and Wilson, fret not. It was indeed an unusual week, and probably an aberration, for most of the game’s greats.

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How Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London‘s injuries impact the Falcons moving forward

By Eric Moody

The Atlanta Falcons took two hits in Week 11 against the Panthers, losing both Penix and London to knee injuries during the overtime loss. Penix’s situation is the most serious. He has been placed on injured reserve and is seeking a second opinion, but the injury is trending toward being season-ending. With Penix sidelined for at least four games and likely the remainder of the season, Kirk Cousins steps in as Atlanta’s starting quarterback.

London suffered a sprained PCL, and he’s not expected to play against New Orleans in Week 12. The Falcons have struggled offensively, ranking 16th in total yards and 27th in points per game. Managers looking for an edge are better off fading all Falcons receivers. The next man up, Darnell Mooney, has just 16 receptions in eight games, and the receivers behind him offer limited upside. Cousins profiles as a low-end QB2 in a struggling offense. Kyle Pitts Sr. is best viewed as a high-end TE2. Expect Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to see significant volume, while no Falcons receiver is likely to replace London’s target share.

Stephania Bell with more on London’s injury: London suffered a PCL sprain and is expected to miss this week and perhaps longer. The tricky thing with PCL or posterior cruciate ligament injuries is that the athlete can often feel pretty good walking around, especially with a mild or even a moderate degree sprain. The challenge comes when they need to decelerate hard where the ligament serves as a controlling restraint for the movement of the femur (thigh bone) on the tibia (shin bone). A damaged ligament — even in the case of little to no visible structural damage — can compromise stability or cause pain that in turn inhibits muscular control around the joint. Any swelling in the area further contributes to the problem.

One only need look at the cases of Raiders tight end Brock Bowers and 49ers receiver Ricky Pearsall, both of whom tried to play through PCL sprains only to have to take more extended time away for recovery. They found they could not decelerate, dig, jump and land properly or make other critical pass-catcher maneuvers in the way they were accustomed in order to perform at a high level. Without knowing the severity of the injury, it is difficult to gauge a return time as it can average anywhere from two to six weeks depending on the degree of the sprain. What is known is that an attempt to return before the PCL fully heals can compromise a player’s performance and potentially risk further injury, even secondarily.

New York Jets benching Justin Fields for Tyrod Taylor

The Jets are benching Fields and turning to the veteran Taylor for Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens, a move confirmed by head coach Aaron Glenn shortly after reports surfaced. Fields’ struggles reached a breaking point after he threw for just 116 yards in the Week 11 loss to the New England Patriots, marking his fourth game in five weeks under 200 passing yards and under a 60% completion rate. The Jets currently average a league-low 139.9 passing yards per game, putting them on pace for the league’s worst mark since Fields’ 2022 Bears.

Taylor has appeared in three games this season, including a Week 3 start in which he threw for 197 yards and two touchdowns. He has completed 62.3% of his passes on the year and should bring more stability to a passing attack that hasn’t been able to sustain drives.

The fantasy fallout centers on New York’s reworked wide receiver rotation. With Garrett Wilson and Josh Reynolds on injured reserve, John Metchie III played into the top role in Week 11 against the Patriots, logging the most snaps in both two- and three-receiver sets. Adonai Mitchell was the team’s most targeted receiver despite several drops. Both Metchie and Mitchell are worth waiver consideration in deeper leagues, with Mitchell offering the most upside.