Only three games in the Round of 64 feature tighter odds than Thursday’s clash between No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Texas at the Moda Center in Portland, Ore.
The Cougars are 2.5-point favorites over the Longhorns, who rubber-stamped their bid to the Big Dance with a thrilling 68-66 victory over NC State in Tuesday’s play-in game.
All eyes in this contest will be on BYU freshman sensation AJ Dybantsa.
The Boston native is essentially a co-favorite with Kansas’ Darryn Peterson to be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft.
BYU vs. Texas odds, prediction
To say that the Cougars will go as far as Dybantsa takes them in this tournament may be selling the rest of the team short, but it does feel like BYU’s most feasible path to success in this tournament is to lean on the Big 12 Freshman of the Year.
That wasn’t always the case for Kevin Young’s squad, but when Richie Saunders went down with a torn ACL, the team naturally looked to Dybantsa to pick up a good chunk of the 18 points per game that Saunders accounted for.
The results for Dybantsa were terrific — he finished the season as the nation’s leading scorer — but the team teetered down the stretch.
BYU lost four of its last six regular-season contests and then was bounced by Houston in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
The Cougars are simply a different team than they were a month ago, which means you need to be careful when sizing up their statistical profile and comparing it to their opposition.
Texas also came into the tournament in scrappy form, but the Longhorns put that behind them with a confidence-building win over NC State on Tuesday.
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The Wolfpack were slight favorites in that game, but it was the Longhorns who earned the victory thanks to a game-winning stroke from Tramon Mark.
Traveling across the country to Portland for a game 48 hours later may not be ideal, but the positivity built from a skid-snapping win, especially in that fashion, outweighs any concern over fatigue.
The tale of the tape also reveals some encouraging signs for Texas.
The offenses are close to a wash, and while BYU boasts the stronger defensive profile, the Longhorns have the edge on the glass and getting to the free-throw line.
Dybantsa is the wild card in this tilt, but the numbers paint this as a coin flip.
Grab the points with the Longhorns.
The Play: Texas +2.5 (-110, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
