Once again, Canelo Alvarez will show up in Las Vegas as a massive favorite to defend his super middleweight title. This time he’s taking on Edgar Berlanga at T-Mobile Arena on Sept. 14, and the line is lopsided even by Alvarez’s standards.
Finding the betting value in an Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KO) fight can be tricky, but not impossible. Then there’s Berlanga (22-0, 17 KO), who can talk a good enough game to boost ticket sales and pay-per-view buys, but is he an actual threat as a huge underdog? Let’s take a closer look.
Canelo Alvarez (-200) vs. Edgar Berlanga (+750)
On paper, Berlanga isn’t much of a match for Alvarez, who’s defeated far more accomplished fighters very recently. Berlanga is young and brash, which always helps sell a fight, but he hasn’t shown much indication that he’s capable of outboxing a fighter of Alvarez’s caliber over the course of a fight.
Berlanga’s best upset hopes, then, rest on catching Alvarez with just the right punch at just the right time. Trouble is, Alvarez has never even been knocked down in a fight. It’s not because he hasn’t ever faced opponents with serious punching power, either.
At 34, and with over 60 pro fights, there’s always the chance that Alvarez could show up and look suddenly old all in one night, but it’s not as if he hasn’t been active enough to give us regular looks at how he’s managing the battle with Father Time. Alvarez has been averaging about two fights per year for a long time now. He always comes in focused and ready to perform, with a style that lends itself to longevity.
Where things get interesting is when you ask yourself whether Alvarez has the ability to put Berlanga away. The -275 line on Alvarez inside the distance isn’t nearly as prohibitive, but you do have to consider that he hasn’t stopped anyone in almost three years.
That said, Berlanga does have some defensive holes that Alvarez could exploit. It’s mostly a question of whether Alvarez will be willing to take the risks and get aggressive enough to knock Berlanga out, or whether he’ll be content to coast to his fourth straight decision win.
If it’s the latter, the +275 line on Alvarez winning on points starts to look like an attractive one. Still, Berlanga is a tough young fighter in the biggest bout of his life, so expect him to come in ready for war. If Alvarez is going to get him out of there, it may have to be later in the fight, through a steady process of attrition.
