The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
2023-24 finish
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Record: 48-34 (lost to the Celtics in the second round)
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Offensive rating: 114.7 (16th)
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Defensive rating: 112.1 (7th)
Offseason moves
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Additions: Head coach Kenny Atkinson, Jaylon Tyson, JT Thor, Luke Travers
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Subtractions: Head coach JB Bickerstaff, Marcus Morris, Damian Jones, Isaiah Mobley
The Big Question: Can they finally become more than the sum of their parts?
Zoom out, and the Cavs’ recent résumé looks downright impressive. Consecutive playoff berths for the first time since LeBron James left; the franchise’s first playoff series victory without James since 1993; the formation of a core with three All-Star cornerstones, plus a fourth who finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting before turning 22.
But you don’t fire the coach who produced that relative success because you’re satisfied by it. You do it because you expect more — more offensive synergy, more pathways to Ws, more than the fourth seed, and more than one series win in which you barely scratched out a point per possession against postseason newbies. That, clearly, is what the Cavs brass expects from Atkinson, fresh off stints assisting Tyronn Lue and Steve Kerr after rebuilding the Nets — and from a core that general manager Koby Altman just paid through the nose to lock into place.
“We want to align ourselves with the best teams in the NBA, and ultimately compete for championships,” Altman said in a team release announcing Donovan Mitchell’s extension.
There’s a reasonable case for expecting more. Last year’s Cavs finished fourth despite Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley missing 84 games, and despite that trio and Jarrett Allen playing just 392 minutes together. Better health could help foster a return to the rhythm that group found in 2022-23, when Cleveland blitzed opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions in their minutes.
A bounce-back would be particularly welcome for Garland, who suffered early hamstring and neck injuries before getting totally derailed by a fractured jaw that rendered him unable to eat solid food for more than a month. Getting him back to All-Star form would go a long way toward helping Atkinson smooth out some of the wrinkles in the Cavs’ offense.
The glass-half-empty take would suggest that those wrinkles represent a naturally occurring byproduct of the fabric of Cleveland’s construction: that a team built around two smaller guards at their best on the ball, and two big men at their best operating inside the elbows, will ultimately prove insufficiently versatile to topple the best opponents they’ll face. To wit: Over the past two seasons, the Cavs were 57-12 against teams under-.500, and 41-53 against opponents with records at or above .500, and went 48-11 against teams with a bottom-10 efficiency differential, and 20-31 against teams in the top 10, according to Cleaning the Glass.
By extending Mitchell, Mobley and Allen, and holding firm on not moving Garland, Altman and Co. have taken a more optimistic view. Maybe growth comes in the form of Mobley stretching his game out to the perimeter to decongest the offense (or, for that matter, Allen resuming the project of taking 3-pointers that he began under Atkinson in Brooklyn). Maybe it’s Mitchell and Garland finding more profitable ways to coexist (more small-small screening actions, please).
Maybe it’s even more aggressive staggering of the core four to field more lineups featuring one guard, one big and three wings — some combination of Max Strus, Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, Dean Wade, Sam Merrill, Isaac Okoro or rookie Jaylon Tyson — to more frequently maximize Cleveland’s spacing, shooting and playmaking juice. Maybe, with Atkinson offering a fresh set of eyes and ideas, it’s all of the above, resulting in a version of the Cavs that pairs an elite defense with finally realized offensive potential — a team that could legitimately make the conference finals.
If it’s not, though? Then maybe it’s time to change some of those parts, in search of a greater sum.
Best-case scenario
Better health, Atkinson’s creativity and a perimeter leap from Mobley give Cleveland the fundamentals of a top-10 offense. Three Cavs make the Eastern All-Star team as they surge to a top-two seed and the chance to face a play-in team rather than slug it out in the 4-vs.-5 matchup. Mitchell turns in a brilliant postseason to push the Cavs into the Eastern Conference finals and gives all parties involved a reason to keep on believing.
If everything falls apart
The core four continues to feel janky, Atkinson’s tweaks be damned, and the team continues to perform better when it’s Mitchell-and-Allen or Garland-and-Mobley. For a third straight year, none of the would-be fifth starters proves reliable in a postseason context. Mobley still doesn’t look like an offensive focal point. The Cavs struggle just to stay above the play-in mix and get bullied into another early exit, leading to renewed calls to break up the core, ending a well-intentioned but ultimately disappointing era.
Fantasy spin
Mobley’s utilization and output have been consistent throughout his first three seasons in the league — nothing crazy, but just enough to see the potential. Well, the 23-year-old is about to go off.
Atkinson says he’ll be featuring Mobley more as a playmaker, and he’s been working to extend his range all offseason. A breakout is incoming, and Mobley will be well worth the price of admission as an early fourth-rounder.
The most significant question mark is Garland. Injuries limited Garland to just 57 games last season and his production was down in nearly every category. Assuming last year was an outlier, his sixth-round ADP reached a low enough point where I’d buy back in. — Dan Titus
2024-25 schedule
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Season opener: Oct. 23 at Toronto
Over/under win total: 48.5
Over. One fewer major injury from last year’s squad gets you there; one more significant improvement from Garland, Mobley or another younger piece probably does, too. I’m not sure Cleveland will be able to stand toe-to-toe with the big boys come May, but I think they’ll roll up a lot of W’s on their way to springtime.
