The Conference Championship weekend is here in college football. Markets are tight, narratives are loud and small edges matter more than ever.
Below are my three favorite plays for this weekend’s conference title matchups — each grounded in matchup context, injury notes and projected numbers.
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All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
SEC Championship: No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5, 47.5) vs. No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide
It’s tough to beat a good team twice, and after Alabama’s escape at Auburn, the market has dipped too low on the Tide. Last week’s rivalry game created two misleading narratives: RB Jam Miller’s injury and WR Ryan Williams’ limited involvement. Those factors disrupted the offense’s rhythm, but neither meaningfully changed Alabama’s true ceiling.
On a neutral field, I make Alabama a slight 0.2-point favorite, suggesting value on the underdog. Georgia has played cleaner ball lately, but predictive metrics still show cracks — fifth in the SEC in EPA/play overall, a far cry from their usual dominance. Against Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs were forced into a run-heavy script and threw for just 70 yards, raising real questions about their explosive play potential.
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Georgia doesn’t beat itself, but this version of Alabama has more high-end playmakers and, importantly, more ways to win this matchup.
Bet: Alabama ML (+115)
Mountain West Championship: UNLV Rebels vs. Boise State Broncos (-4.5, 58.5)
Boise State’s road to the title game wasn’t linear, but the preseason conference favorites still ended up where most expected. The early-season blowout loss to South Florida doesn’t sting as badly now, and the biggest issue — the injury to QB Maddux Madsen — may be resolved. Reports indicate Madsen is set to return, which is a major boost.
UNLV’s three-year run under Barry Odom and Dan Mullen has been historic for the program, but this number reflects the talent gap that still exists. The Rebels have been a fantastic story, yet Boise’s roster, QB edge, and experience on big stages give them a clear advantage.
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With Madsen back in the lineup, the Broncos should have enough firepower and structure to pull away.
Bet: Boise State -4.5 (-110)
Big Ten Championship: No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-4, 47.5)
Before the matchup was locked in, lookahead lines had Ohio State -2.5. Since then, Indiana rolled Wisconsin and Purdue, yet this line was pushed out to +4.
Ohio State has been my No. 1 team in the country since the preseason Yahoo Sports preview, and nothing has changed there. But this bet is about the number, not the helmet. My projection has Ohio State winning 25-23, giving Indiana value at the current spread.
The Buckeyes should control the game, but Indiana’s recent offensive uptick and the inflated line make the Hoosiers the right side.
Bet: Indiana +4 (-105)
