After close calls against Boston College and Vanderbilt, I think it’s time to sell high on Missouri.
The Tigers’ strength of schedule is not overly impressive (4-0 against BC, VAN, Buffalo and Murray State).
Conversely, I think it’s time to buy low on Texas A&M.
While the Aggies failed to cover Bowling Green and Arkansas, they still beat two teams that have vastly exceeded market expectations (combined 7-2 ATS).
Texas A&M’s defense is vulnerable against deep passing plays, but Missouri’s offense isn’t built to exploit that.
The Tigers rank 119th nationally in explosiveness, and Brady Cook is 3-for-14 passing when throwing 20-plus yards downfield.
While Conner Weigman could be healthy for this game, I’m OK with the Aggies starting Marcel Reed again.
They have shifted to a more RPO/dual-threat attack with Reed under center, and Vanderbilt kept it close against Missouri by utilizing a similar scheme.
The pick: Texas A&M -2.5.
VANDERBILT (+23.5) over Alabama
Vanderbilt is running a quasi-triple option offense.
The Commodores run the ball with dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia more than 60 percent of the time, shortening the game and making them a must-bet as big underdogs.
They’ve already covered as huge ’dogs twice this year, beating Virginia Tech outright when catching 13.5 and losing to Missouri by three when catching 17.5.
Vanderbilt should cover again as a monster home underdog against Alabama.
The Tide are due for a letdown game after an emotional win over Georgia last week, and their biggest weakness is rush defense, ranking 73rd nationally in rush success rate allowed.
Pavia and the Vandy offense should move the ball methodically on the ground, making it difficult for Jalen Milroe to build a margin.
MINNESOTA (+8.5) over USC
While it hasn’t played the most overwhelmingly challenging schedule of passing attacks, Minnesota’s pass defense might be legit.
PJ Fleck’s stop unit ranks 22nd nationally in sack rate and 38th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, adding up to the nation’s top mark in EPA per pass allowed.
USC will always have a talented offense under Lincoln Riley.
However, the Trojans seem overwhelmingly reliant on Miller Moss this season.
He’s undeniably talented, but the team ranks seventh nationally in pass rate (over 61 percent) and 60th nationally in EPA per rush.
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Meanwhile, Minnesota is undervalued after last week’s fluky loss to Michigan.
The Gophers lost by three despite outgaining the Wolverines by 73 yards while running seven more plays.
A lost fumble on their 12-yard line was the dagger.
I don’t have much faith in Minnesota’s offense.
Still, I think New Hampshire transfer and FCS phenom passer Max Brosmer is starting to improve after amassing 450 yards against Iowa and Michigan’s elite secondaries.
USC’s defense is among the most improved units in the FBS, but the Trojans aren’t as talented as either of those opponents; they still rank 87th nationally in pass success rate allowed.
Last week: 0-3. Baylor (L), Oklahoma State (L), Penn State (L)
2024 season: 6-9
