Tuesday represents a critical turning point in American society — midweek MACtion has returned!
I’ll break down Tuesday’s two MAC football games and my best bets in this article.
Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan prediction
(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
The hits keep coming for Central Michigan, which lost starting quarterback Joe Labas and backup quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr.
Tyler Jefferson, a three-star sophomore out of Lake City, Fla., started last week. He completed just 7-of-17 passes for 62 yards, with a dreadful 41.2% completion rate and 3.6 yards per attempt.
The Chippewas’ offense has struggled all season, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in points per drive and third-down success rate, despite facing the 128th-ranked strength of schedule.
Bowling Green might have the best defense in the MAC this season, as it ranks 17th in EPA per Pass allowed and 23rd in third-down success rate allowed.
Central Michigan will likely attempt to establish the run against a more vulnerable Bowling Green run defense, but the Chippewas rank just 110th Pro Football Focus’s Run Blocking grades.
With Jefferson failing to provide a dangerous passing threat, the Falcons can load the box on early downs and force the Chippewas into third-and-long situations.
Keep an eye on the weather forecast, as wind could also be a factor. Early concerns drove the full-game total down from 53.5 to 48.5.
Regardless, I’m interested in fading the Central Michigan offense Tuesday night.
Pick: Central Michigan team total under 17.5 (-138, FanDuel)
Miami (OH) vs. Ball State prediction
(8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
After a 1-4 start, Miami (OH) has started to look like the team we expected to see this year. Its won three straight games by an average of 24 points, while covering the spread by more than 19 points per game.
Sixth-year senior quarterback Brett Gabbert has eight touchdowns and no interceptions over that span, and he should be able to keep his hot streak going against a Ball State defense that ranks 131st nationally in PFF’s coverage grades.
Miami (OH) should also have plenty of success running the ball, as Ball State ranks 123rd in EPA per Rush allowed.
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Keyon Mozee and Jordan Brunson average more than six yards per carry for the RedHawks this season, and if the current forecast of 20-plus-mph winds holds, we should see a run-heavy game script for Miami.
Ball State’s offense will likely struggle to gain traction, as well. The Cardinals rank 104th in early down offensive EPA per Play, while the RedHawks rank 26th defensively. Miami ranks 27th in defensive yards per play and has held its last three conference opponents to an average of 3.7 yards per play.
I expect Miami’s dominant conference play to continue against an overmatched Ball State team. Still, I’m holding off to see if the market is interested in backing the home underdog.
I’d love to get a -10 or better on the RedHawks here.
Pick: Lean Miami -10 or better (-140, DraftKings)
