College football returns in earnest Saturday with the promise of payouts for savvy bettors.
While Clemson-Georgia and Notre Dame-Texas A&M highlight Week 1, I’m targeting two games flying under the national radar on my betting card.
Week 1 college football predictions
Old Dominion vs. South Carolina (4:15 p.m., SEC Network)
Old Dominion was the definition of fool’s gold last season.
The Monarchs won six games, but when you dig into their wins, it’s easy to see they were living on the edge all season.
They were a two-point conversion away from losing to Texas A&M-Commerce.
Then they stopped a lifeless Southern Miss team at the 1-yard line late in the fourth quarter to preserve a four-point win.
And just to add to their dramatic résumé, they scored the final 11 points of the game against Georgia State to win by one in the regular-season finale.
That comeback against Georgia State included a blocked field goal, a safety and a rushing touchdown for ODU on the final play of the game.
The Gamecocks, meanwhile, were snakebit in 2023.
They had a rash of injuries on the line, causing catastrophic problems for their offense (106th pass pro, 121st run block). But now they enter the year at full health with an experienced two-deep up front.
They also trot out a dynamic Big 3 in dual-threat passer LaNorris Sellers, transfer running back Rocket Sanders and modern marvel Nyck Harbor.
The 6-foot-5, 242-pound Harbor topped Bruce Feldman’s “Freak List” for the second year in a row because of his otherworldly blend of size and speed.
He ran the 200 meters in 20.2 seconds, which automatically qualified him for the Olympic Trials.
After a year of learning the finer points of the position, he’s primed to destroy a patchwork ODU secondary.
The talent mismatch in this game is sizable and should be felt noticeably in the havoc and explosive departments.
Old Dominion couldn’t prevent teams from getting to their quarterback last season (51 sacks allowed). And the last time the defense took the field, it got torched by a passer making his first career start.
Western Kentucky’s Caden Veltkamp finished 40-for-52 for 383 yards and five passing touchdowns.
Saturday’s matchup in Columbia has “blowout” written all over it.
Recommendation: South Carolina -20.5 (+100, FanDuel)
UNLV vs. Houston (7 p.m., FS1)
Winning has been a common theme across Willie Fritz’s storied 42-year career.
Another theme? Patience.
Except for his short time at Georgia Southern, it’s taken Fritz at least one season to get his house in order. And that’s why I’m fading the Cougars in Fritz’s UH debut.
Houston returns Donovan Smith at quarterback, but Fritz leans heavily on his ground game (top 25 in run rate the last two seasons).
For that reason, the bigger headline is that just one starter returns along the line.
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On the perimeter, Houston lost its top two receivers to Texas and Miami in the transfer portal. Likewise, DC Shiel Wood will need to replace nine starters in his 3-3-5 system.
Continuity and a deficit of playmakers are red flags here.
UNLV, meanwhile, has playmakers in droves, namely All-American Ricky White at wide receiver, freshman All-American Jai’Den Thomas at running back and a pair of former blue-chip transfers at safety.
UNLV went to the portal to find its next passer and hit a home run by landing Matt Sluka.
The former Walter Payton Award winner is a dynamic runner who nearly upset Boston College on the road last year as Holy Cross’ starting quarterback.
The GoGo offense was a big hit in Sin City last year, but it could top 35 points per game with Sluka as its triggerman.
Recommendation: UNLV +120 (DraftKings)
