With just five regular-season weeks remaining in the college football season, it’s becoming progressively more difficult to find value in the futures market.
That’s why I’m parlaying a pair of favorites to win their respective conferences at nearly 4/1 odds (+371) at Bet365.
Leg 1: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-175)
Boise State just won the Game of the Year in its conference, dispatching UNLV on its home field, 29-24. The win all but assures the Broncos home-field advantage in the MWC title game on Dec. 6.
The Broncos’ narrow late-night victory last Friday also demonstrated that they’re more than Ashton Jeanty. UNLV threw eight- and nine-man boxes at Jeanty all night. This cut into his yards-after-contact average, dropping him from an otherworldly season average of 7.25 down to 6.42 postgame.
He broke eight tackles, battled through an arm injury and still generated 139 all-purpose yards. But the real story was how his teammates, namely Maddux Madsen, took advantage of their opportunities when Jeanty wasn’t toting the rock.
Madsen hadn’t been called upon to throw the ball more than 25 times since Week 2 at Oregon. How did he respond when asked to shoulder a heavier offensive load? Exceptionally well, with a QBR of 84.5 against UNLV.
He was efficient and turnover-free through the air and ripped off a 49-yard run to boot. Boise has aspirations beyond the MWC this season. If Madsen plays at this level, the Broncos could achieve their lofty goals of winning a playoff game.
Defensively, their performance against UNLV pushed them inside the top 10 in Havoc. The Broncos’ sack percentage (12.66%) is the highest since the NCAA began tracking sacks in 2000. Boise isn’t just sending waves of linebackers and defensive backs at opposing passers, it’s varying its pressures and sending five or more on only 34.6% of the defensive snaps.
When the Broncos do send those defenders from their back seven, those blitzers are getting home. Defensive backs Seyi Oladipo, Rodney Robinson, Alexander Teubner and Davon Banks have combined for 9.5 sacks this season. For perspective, that’s more sack production from their secondary than Iowa State has from its entire defense this fall. For Boise, it’s not just scheme, it’s individual blitzers far outperforming reasonable expectations.
The Broncos just took UNLV’s best punch and walked off the field with the victory. I love their chances to repeat the feat in five weeks on their home turf.
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Leg 2: Georgia to win the SEC (+200)
I was surprised to see Georgia is still sitting at +200 to win the SEC after their defense put Texas in a box down in Austin.
If the Bulldogs play at that level, there isn’t a team in the conference that could beat them on the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Offensively, Georgia has cleaned things up in recent weeks, cracking the top 20 in quality drives, standard down explosiveness and pass protection.
And critically, Mike Bobo and the offense are avoiding slow starts.
The Bulldogs dug themselves a massive hole against Alabama by opening the game with three straight empty possessions. Since then, Georgia and its offensive staff have figured things out.
In the past two games, Georgia has scored a total of 50 first-half points.
Once teams are forced to play catch-up, it’s game over. Kirby Smart’s defense is No. 1 in passing-down success rate. The mean machine in red and black is back and will likely be favored by five or more against any opponent in the SEC title game.
PARLAY: Boise to win Mountain West -175 | Georgia to win SEC +200 (+371, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.
