Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our predicted playoff field as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP selection committee’s rankings will make the playoff and the rest of the field will be filled out by seven at-large teams. Who will lift the national championship trophy on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: Nos. 25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri, No. 8 Michigan, No. 7 Notre Dame
2023 record: 12-2, 8-0 SEC
Last season in 100 words or less
The Crimson Tide’s playoff margin for error disappeared in Week 2 with a 34-24 home loss to Texas. The game established Texas as a CFP contender and forced Alabama to win out to make the postseason.
Guess what? Alabama did just that. The Crimson Tide won their final 10 games of the regular season to set up a meeting with Georgia in the SEC title game. There were a few close ones in there — Alabama beat Arkansas and Auburn by three and Texas A&M by six — before taking down the previously undefeated Bulldogs 27-24 in the SEC title game.
Alabama didn’t play for the title, however, after a messy play led to Jalen Milroe being stopped short on fourth down in overtime of the Rose Bowl against Michigan.
Why Alabama can make the playoff
It’s a massive season of change at Alabama. That will be the theme across the Crimson Tide’s 2024 season as the football program embarks on its first season of the post-Nick Saban era. Saban retired in the days after the Rose Bowl as the most successful coach in modern college football history and is replaced by a coach who has a remarkable winning percentage throughout his time as a head coach in college football.
Kalen DeBoer is fresh off a playoff appearance at Washington as the Huskies went 25-3 in his two seasons with the program. Overall, DeBoer is 37-9 as a head coach at the FBS level with Washington and Fresno State, and he was 67-3 in five seasons as a head coach at NAIA Sioux Falls.
There will be an adjustment period for sure. But there’s also no reason to think that Alabama won’t be very good again in 2024. We’ll start with the offense, which could be incredibly dynamic despite some questions that need to be answered at wide receiver.
Jalen Milroe rebounded after an early season benching in 2023 to throw for over 2,800 yards and rush for over 500. His growth over the course of the season was remarkable and he enters 2024 as one of the early Heisman favorites.
The offensive line should be better as four starters return, including Kadyn Proctor after his flirtation with Iowa in the offseason. Sophomore Justice Haynes could be the lead back, though we wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a running back-by-committee approach throughout the season.
The Tide will be looking for a go-to receiver or three in 2024, however. The team’s top three pass catchers are gone and Kobe Prentice is the leading returning receiver. He had 18 catches for 314 yards. Germie Bernard transferred from Washington and could be in line for a bigger role after serving as the Huskies’ No. 4 receiver in 2023.
The defense could also look a lot different without Saban. Alabama hired South Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack to run the defense. The Jaguars gave up 21 points per game in each of the past two seasons and handily beat Oklahoma State in Week 2 a season ago.
DB Caleb Downs is off to Ohio State, but the secondary returns reliable safety Malachi Moore. He’ll be the leader of the defense. Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell are back at linebacker and so are Tim Smith and Tim Keenan on the line.
Saban’s defenses were always able to get consistent pressure on the quarterback and figuring out who Alabama’s best pass rushers are will be key for Wommack. The Tide had 39 sacks as a team a season ago and need to replace many of them with the departures of Dallas Turner, Chris Braswell and others.
But we’re confident that can happen with the talent that’s still in Tuscaloosa despite the losses to the NFL and the transfer portal. DeBoer, Wommack and Co. aren’t having to stock an empty cupboard.
Key player
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WR Kobe Prentice
It could be the former four-star recruit’s time to shine. Prentice had 13 fewer catches as a sophomore than he did in 2022, but he averaged far more yards per catch. In 2022, Prentice had 31 grabs for 337 yards and two scores. In 2023, he averaged over 17 yards a catch.
Prentice has as good a shot as anybody to be Alabama’s No. 1 receiver in 2024 and it’s hard to ignore the success that DeBoer’s teams have had throwing the ball at both Fresno State and Washington. While this Alabama team won’t likely have three early draft picks at receiver like last year’s Washington team did, DeBoer and his staff’s ability to develop receivers should get the benefit of the doubt.
Biggest game
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Sept. 28 vs. Georgia
Alabama doesn’t exactly ease into the 2024 season. Games against Western Kentucky and South Florida should be easy wins to start the season, but the Bulls should be feisty in the AAC this season and held Alabama to 17 points in the game Milroe was benched last year.
After that, Alabama heads to Wisconsin in Week 3 before an off week ahead of Georgia’s trip to Tuscaloosa in Week 5. Even if Alabama blows out its first three opponents, Georgia could be favored ahead of that game.
Following Georgia, the Crimson Tide’s road schedule the rest of the season isn’t a cakewalk. The Tide play at Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. A 10-2 regular season should be enough to get into the College Football Playoff.
