It’ll be easy to pretend the Pac-12 is still alive. It’ll be easy to imagine the world we enjoyed only two years ago, before the Big Ten took a sledgehammer to college sports and created an unholy amalgamation of schools from New Jersey, Nebraska, and the Pacific Northwest.
When No. 15 USC (8-2) travels to No. 7 Oregon (9-1), some semblance of West Coast tradition will temporarily feel unspoiled in this preliminary playoff game.
The Ducks have lost only one home game in the past three years, playing under a coach (Dan Lanning) who is 34-4 since 2023. The Trojans are 3-6 on the road in the past two seasons, playing under a coach (Lincoln Riley) who has lost five straight games against top 10 teams.
But Oregon faces the greater challenge in this game, with its No. 2-ranked defense having built its reputation by taking advantage of the anemic offenses of Oklahoma State (ranked 124th), Northwestern (115th), Oregon State (95th), Penn State (109th), Wisconsin (135th), Iowa (121st), and Minnesota (132nd). The Ducks’ only matchup against a top 40 offense came against Indiana (17th), which left Eugene with a 30-20 win.
Meanwhile, the Trojans have faced five consecutive top 30 scoring defenses, yet still average more than 38 points per game and rank third in the nation in total yards, with a balanced attack that averages nearly 300 yards passing and nearly 200 yards rushing.
The Trojans (+9.5) will put up enough points to make the Ducks sweat. Since joining the Big Ten, USC’s eight losses have come by an average of less than six points.
Rutgers (+31.5) over OHIO STATE
The defending champs may be the best team in the country, but it’s worth pointing out that their only win against a top 20 team came in a 14-7 win that was Arch Manning’s first career road start.
VIRGINIA TECH (+17.5) over Miami
We are approaching late November, and the Hurricanes have somehow played only two road games. Carson Beck’s experience doesn’t offer confidence, featuring two wins in his past five road games, along with nine interceptions.
Missouri (+7.5) over OKLAHOMA
Barring an upset, the Sooners will make the playoff, but the offensively challenged group wouldn’t even have a winning record without a string of unlikely good fortune in wins against Auburn, Tennessee, and Alabama. Stay away until learning the status of the Tigers quarterback, Beau Pribula.
SMU (-2.5) over Louisville
No one should be confident picking the winner of an ACC game, but the Mustangs are flexing the muscle memory of last year’s playoff run, winning five of their past six games. In a coin-flip contest, Louisville — which is 1-3 in games decided by less than a touchdown — may fold after missing two field goals and an extra point in last week’s loss to Clemson.
Charlotte (+43.5) over GEORGIA
Even at the height of Kirby Smart’s powers, the Bulldogs rarely stepped on the necks of the less fortunate. It has been no different this season, which featured a 28-6 home win over Austin Peay before its clash with Tennessee. Georgia — which is paying the 49ers $1.9 million for this win — will save its strength for the Black Friday showdown against Georgia Tech.
Syracuse (+35.5) over NOTRE DAME
The Orange have had two weeks to prepare. They have to hope that’s enough prep time to help them cover this massive number.
Arkansas (+8.5) over TEXAS
The Hogs are 0-5 since Bobby Petrino was put back in charge, but they lost those games by an average of less than four points. Arkansas’ 12th-ranked offense should have no trouble moving the ball against a Texas defense that has allowed at least 31 points in three straight games.
VANDERBILT (-9.5) over Kentucky
Wins won’t be enough. Diego Pavia and the Commodores (5-1 against the spread as a favorite) will need style points to help make their case to the selection committee.
Kansas State (+17.5) over UTAH
The Wildcats have not fulfilled their potential, but they have the talent and discipline to remain competitive, leading the nation in takeaways and committing the fifth-fewest penalties. Kansas State (3-1 as an underdog against the spread) has lost by more than 13 points in only three of its past 22 defeats under Chris Klieman.
MARYLAND (+13.5) over Michigan
It doesn’t feel good to back a team with no home-field advantage and a coach who has lost 73 percent of his games in the Big Ten, but the Wolverines offense doesn’t leave much of a choice, especially with standout running back Justice Haynes sidelined. Michigan (2-5 as a favorite against the spread) has averaged less than 23 points per game against power conference teams, and $10 million freshman Bryce Underwood hasn’t thrown a touchdown in over a month despite facing the only winless teams in league play (Purdue, Michigan State).
HOUSTON (-1.5) over Tcu
The Cougars are coming off a bye. The Horned Frogs are coming off their third loss in four Big 12 trips, having allowed more than 32 points per game away from home, where Josh Hoover has thrown seven of his 10 interceptions, and six of his 23 touchdowns.
GEORGIA TECH (-2.5) over Pittsburgh
The Panthers remain in contention for the ACC because of a schedule that’s allowed them to feast on teams with a combined 7-27 record in league play. With a conference title game at stake, it would not be wise to take an unproven freshman (Mason Heintschel) on the road against senior Haynes King, the ACC’s leader in total touchdowns.
FLORIDA (+3.5) over Tennessee
Something about those Creamsicle-colored uniforms brings the best out of the Gators, who haven’t lost a home game against Tennessee in 22 years despite several matchups during losing seasons. Florida, which held fourth-quarter leads over two playoff teams (Georgia, Ole Miss) this month, hasn’t lost in Gainesville since the first week of September.
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Byu (-2.5) over CINCINNATI
After running through a soft schedule, the Bearcats have been brought back to reality with back-to-back losses. The 11th-ranked Cougars (5-2 as a favorite against the spread) will add the next defeat, overwhelming a defense that ranks 90th in the nation against the run.
Best bets: Arkansas, Maryland, Byu
This season: 83-97 (13-23)
2014-24 record: 1,392-1,309-31
