There are a lot of consequential races up in the air heading into the final week of the NFL season. Seeding is still a bit murky at the top of both conferences, which means even the teams still have something to play for entering Week 18.
If you look at NFL MVP odds, the race is locked up heading into the last week of the season. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is -500 to win NFL MVP at BetMGM, surpassing Matthew Stafford (+325) as the favorite.
It’s a fascinating turn of events considering Maye entered the season with 66-1 odds and Stafford was 50-1 to win MVP.
Updated NFL MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye | -500 |
| Matthew Stafford | +325 |
| Josh Allen | 250/1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 250/1 |
| Caleb Williams | 250/1 |
For weeks, this has been a two-man race with Maye and Stafford jockeying for position each week. Stafford was a -300 favorite at BetMGM entering Week 16 with Maye trailing him at +400.
Entering Week 17, Stafford was -210, and Maye was +165.
The current odds suggest that Maye’s odds flipped based on his five-touchdown performance against the Jets — admittedly one of the most accurate games a quarterback has ever had — and Stafford’s failed comeback on “Monday Night Football” against the Falcons in which he threw three interceptions, including a pick-six.
I’m not so sure that makes sense, though.
This is a season-long award, so one performance can’t outweigh all the others for either quarterback.
This race is still close if you widen the lens. Stafford leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (42), is second in passing yards (4,448), and fifth in ESPN’s QBR (70.1).
Maye ranks first in completion percentage (71.1 percent), third in touchdowns and second in ESPN’s QBR (76.5).
And there’s still football left to play.
The Patriots still have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the Rams can get the No. 5 seed in the NFC with a win and some help on Saturday night from the Seahawks.
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If the Seahawks lose, we could see the Rams rest their starters, but again, there is a full body of work for voters to look at for this award. I think there’s some value on Stafford at these odds.
Last month, I made the case for Maye to win MVP, and if you made the wager at that time, you’d have a +190 ticket on your hands. That puts you in position to potentially hedge.
For example, if you already bet $100 on Maye at +190 odds, you can hedge your bet by taking Stafford to win MVP with a $68 bet and profit at least $122 if Maye wins. If Stafford wins, you would profit $221.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
