Manny Diaz began his Duke coaching career last week with a solid showing over FCS Elon, winning 26-3, but it’s doubtful he’ll be able to replicate that performance against Northwestern, which continues to trend up under David Braun.
Duke enters Friday’s primetime matchup as 2.5-point road underdogs against a Northwestern team attempting to do something it hasn’t done since 2015 — start 2-0 straight up and against the spread.
Read on for my Duke vs Northwestern odds, prediction, and pick.
Duke vs. Northwestern odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | +2.5 (-110) | +118 | Over 37 (-110) |
| Northwestern | -2.5 (-110) | -140 | Under 37 (-110) |
Duke vs. Northwestern prediction
(9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
After years of Big Ten mediocrity under Pat Fitzgerald, the Wildcats looked rejuvenated under Braun.
Last season, the former Winona State defensive lineman coached up Northwestern’s previously underperforming defense.
The Wildcats allowed just 22 points per game, winning their final five games by holding four opponents under 15 points.
They were a tad lucky, generating a +13 turnover margin while going 5-2 in one-score games.
But they were also excellent at keeping everything in front of them, ranking sixth nationally in Explosive Plays allowed (44, 22nd).
If you expected regression, it didn’t come in Week 1.
Miami (OH) has an elite MAC offense, and Brett Gabbert is arguably the best quarterback in the Group of Five.
Yet, Northwestern held the RedHawks to a 39% Success Rate (17th percentile) and -0.19 EPA per Play (17th percentile) en route to just two field goals. Gabbert was sacked three times and threw two picks.
This makes sense. Northwestern returned eight starters from last year’s bend-don’t-break crew, so the Wildcats have enough experience to overwhelm a far less talented team.
While I eventually expect regression from the Wildcats against more talented Power Four offenses, I don’t believe Duke fits that bill.
Diaz was a good hire for Duke, but the Blue Devils are working on a complete Year 0 rebuild. They have a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and quarterback (Maalik Murphy).
Their offensive line is the least experienced in the ACC, with only 37 career starts, which doesn’t bode well against a Wildcat defensive line that returned seven of its top eight rotation guys from last year.
The Blue Devils returned only five defensive starters from 2023 and lost their top five defensive linemen, which will be a disadvantage against a relatively experienced Northwestern offensive line.
The Wildcats should own the trenches on Friday.
Duke ranks 108th nationally in experience, including second-to-last in the ACC. An argument could be made that the Blue Devils are the worst team in the ACC.
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Duke vs. Northwestern pick
While they played well against Elon, you can’t draw too much from a Week 1 game against an FCS opponent. Conversely, I feel good about Northwestern’s defense after its Week 1 showing against the defending MAC champions, and I think the Wildcats can replicate that.
I’m not overly confident in Northwestern’s mediocre offense, and I don’t love QB1 Mike Wright. But the Wildcats did just enough against an uber-experienced Miami (OH) defense last week. I expect the same against a far less experienced (albeit more talented) stop unit.
Action Network’s PRO model projects the Wildcats as seven-point favorites in this game, so I’m quite happy grabbing them under a field goal on the spread.
Pick: Northwestern -2.5 (-110, Caesars)
