Historically, underdogs are undervalued and underplayed, but taking them makes it far too easy to kick yourself when the pick goes sideways.
When you bet the favorite, at least you have someone else to blame.
Illinois (-7.5) over Iowa
The Hawkeyes have nothing in common with the roster that lost to the two worst teams in the Big Ten (Maryland, Penn State) last month, having earned their first Elite Eight berth since 1987 with timely shooting and incredible coaching.
But a team with one player averaging more than 10.5 points isn’t equipped to trade baskets with the nation’s second-most efficient offense, nor is a frontline without the size to match up with Illinois’ pair of 7-footers.
Illinois claimed a win in Iowa City two months ago, 75-69, but the final score doesn’t tell the story of a game the Illini controlled before taking their foot off the gas in the second half. Freshman — and soon-to-be lottery pick — Keaton Wagler was still getting his feet wet that day, taking just nine shots.
And Bennett Stirtz — in the midst of a weekslong shooting slump — struggled against Illinois’ length, hitting 5-of-17 from the field. Even if the Iowa star gets hot, he doesn’t have enough help to keep pace with Illinois’ balanced attack.
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Arizona (-6.5) over Purdue
It’s easy to walk into the trap of putting too much stock into the most recent performances — Arizona shot 64 percent in a blowout of the SEC Tournament champion (Arkansas), while Purdue needed a buzzer-beater to beat No. 11 Texas — but faith in the Wildcats stems from four-plus months as the most impressive team in the nation, who are now six weeks removed from their only two losses of the season.
A battle of top-five offenses only features one elite defense, with Arizona’s size and athleticism capable of ruining the rhythm of Braden Smith — who is shooting 37.5 percent from the field this month — and the Boilermakers.
The Wildcats will push the pace, taking Purdue out of its comfort zone, attacking the rim and refusing to settle for 3s, unlike its opponent. Matt Painter — who is 0-7 against No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament — broke through for Purdue’s long-awaited Final Four return in 2024.
Now, it is Tommy Lloyd’s turn to lead Arizona — which has lost in the second weekend of the tournament 12 times since reaching the 2001 title game — back to the Final Four, led by his three soon-to-be first-round picks (Brayden Burries, Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas) and the Big 12 Player of the Year (Jaden Bradley).
This season: 14-16
2011-25 record: 403-371-12
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Howie Kussoy has long been the New York Post’s main handicapper in college basketball (since 2011) and college football (since 2013).
