Expert’s picks: Will Fundora’s size be enough against Thurman’s power?

Sebastian Fundora will put his WBC junior middleweight title on the line against Keith Thurman on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas (Prime Video PPV, 7 p.m. ET).

Fundora (23-1-1, 15 KOs) won the belt with a split decision victory over Tim Tszyu in March 2024 and has since made two successful defenses, including a seventh-round TKO in their rematch last July.

At 6-foot-5½ with an 80-inch reach, Fundora presents a unique challenge for anyone in the division. While he has the tools to fight at range, the southpaw is just as comfortable working on the inside, where he uses his volume and body attack to wear opponents down. He enters the fight as a -380 favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Thurman (31-1, 23 KOs), a former unified welterweight champion, has been largely inactive since his split decision loss to Manny Pacquiao in September 2019. He has fought just twice since then, most recently in March 2025, when he moved up to junior middleweight and stopped Brock Jarvis in three rounds — the only ring action he’s seen in more than four years.

Still, Thurman’s experience could be a factor. At his peak, he faced many of the best in the welterweight division. He always displayed good footwork, and he’ll need to rely on his movement to avoid staying in front of the much taller Fundora. Thurman also carries power in both hands, with his overhand right potentially a key punch against the rangy champion.

Will Fundora use his size, youth and relentless body attack to break down the veteran? Or can Thurman, the +280 underdog, lean on his experience and power to catch Fundora coming in and pull off the upset?

Former champions Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia, and Raul Marquez break down how the fight could unfold and offer their picks.

Editor’s note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.

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Shawn Porter, former welterweight champion

How does Thurman win?

I think there are multiple paths to victory for Thurman. I would like to see him use his movement and, once he’s in close, go to the body. Then, pivot, step around, lock up, or whatever we need to do to prevent Fundora from getting any punches off. I think that’s a great way to break down Fundora and force him to give up his height, a weakness we have seen for most of his career, up until the last two fights. Thurman can box and move his way to a victory.

Thurman can win by knockout. It doesn’t have to be that Brian Mendoza one-punch knockout he used to beat Fundora, although we know Thurman has that kind of power. People always criticize whether he had it at 147 and wonder if he has it at 154. Trust me, if he had it at 147, he’s got more power at 154 and he probably should be fighting at 160. The athleticism sets up his power, and that power can take out Fundora.

How does Fundora win?

I don’t think Fundora can afford to keep the fight on the outside and box all night. While he has the longer arms and the taller frame, he doesn’t use them proficiently. He has to force the fight to take place in close quarters and be responsible defensively after he lets his hands go. I think that’s the only path to success for him. He has to get close and break Thurman down like he has done to other opponents. If he doesn’t break him down, the fight is up in the air. This is ultimately Fundora’s fight to lose.

Who wins?

I always root for the B-side, so I think I have Thurman by knockout.

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Raul Marquez, former U.S. Olympian and junior middleweight champion, boxing analyst

The matchup

Thurman is 37 years old. I remember when I fought for the middleweight title against Arthur Abraham when I was 37. Abraham was a monster, and I wasn’t the same. I think Fundora is that monster for Thurman right now. Thurman also has been inactive. Yes, he’s got a lot of experience fighting top fighters such as Manny Pacquiao, Danny Garcia, Shawn Porter, Robert Guerrero, Luis Collazo and Julio Diaz. But I don’t see him winning this fight. At 37, when you fight a guy like Fundora that I think has gotten better and is in his prime, I just don’t see Thurman having that firepower he used to have when he was younger — mostly because of inactivity.

How does Fundora win?

He just has to be himself, use his height and reach advantages. He has to control the range early on, figure Thurman out and use the jab. Get in the inside and make Thurman work and then break him down. Use body shots and uppercuts coming in while keeping a fast pace. He’s fighting an older guy that likes to fight at his own pace, so don’t let him do that. Fundora has very good defense, so he will have to be ready for things that Thurman could be setting up because of his experience.

How does Thurman win?

Land “a” punch, get close. And that’s something he can do, because Fundora also likes to fight close. I know Thurman has been working on using his distance. Thurman is fast, but I think Fundora is ready for that. He has gotten better since the Brian Mendoza fight; he learned a lot from that loss. He’s matured and he’s very disciplined. The only way Thurman can win is if Fundora makes a mistake and gets careless.

Thurman’s an in-and-out type of fighter. But he’s not going to have legs to do that for 12 rounds with a fighter like Fundora that’s coming at him. I think Thurman’s going to hold him to keep him active. He’s going to have to stand there and go toe-to-toe at some point, and that’s not going to be his fight because his legs are not going to be there. The only thing he could do is land a big punch using his experience and picking his moments. Get inside and catch him from a different angle. He could catch him at long distance as well, but it’s got to be the right punch — the overhand right or the left hook. He’s got the power to drop him, but that’s the only way. He’s not going to outpunch Fundora.

Who wins?

Fundora by late-round stoppage. I think the corner will stop it. I don’t think Thurman can last, especially at his age. The deeper the fight goes, the harder it’ll get for him.

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Danny Garcia, former junior welterweight and welterweight champion

How does Fundora win?

Use his youth, apply smart pressure and keep Thurman on the end of his punches. Fundora should try to break the inactive Thurman down. If he does this, I can see him winning by a late TKO.

How does Thurman win?

Take advantage of his experience. Use quick feet, smart and tight defense, frustrate Fundora and try to land hard looping punches. If he does that, he can score a late-round KO like Mendoza did against Fundora.

Who wins?

I don’t see this fight going the distance. Thurman by KO.