Auburn and Michigan will battle for a spot in the Elite 8 on Friday night.
Michigan struggled down the stretch of the regular season, but the Wolverines found their game during a run to the Big Ten Championship.
They carried that form into the tournament, taking care of a trendy UC San Diego side in Round 1 and then upsetting Texas A&M in the Round of 32.
The Wolverines are a 9.5-point underdog against Auburn at the time of writing.
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Michigan vs. Auburn betting preview
The Tigers – the No. 1 overall seed in the field – come into the Sweet 16 in interesting form. Auburn had no issues in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, but Bruce Pearl’s side is just 3-3 overall in its last six contests, and the Tigers are just 1-5 Against the Spread (ATS) in that span.
It’s fair to question how much you want to take into account Auburn’s middling form down the stretch, as they had already wrapped up the SEC regular-season title by the time it started to slide. The Tigers had very little to play for at that point, as a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance was already locked up.
The big-picture view of Auburn is much more impressive than its recent run of form. The Tigers are 30-5 overall, 17-5 against Quad I opponents, and the No. 4 team in KenPom’s power rankings.
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Michigan vs. Auburn pick
This may look like a daunting spread to cover, given Auburn’s wobbly form (relatively speaking, of course), but the difference between these two teams is wide.
Michigan deserves credit for its performance against Texas A&M, but it was an unsustainable way to win a game. The Wolverines went 29-for-36 from the charity stripe and held the Aggies to just 27-for-71 from the floor.
That is unlikely to happen against Auburn.
The Pick: Auburn -9.5 (Fanatics Sportsbook)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
