With the final month of the baseball season starting Monday, it’s time to make sure your fantasy team is ready for the final push.
That means making sure you have the depth needed, and targeting pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff to go along with solid matchups down the stretch is a good place to start.
In his first to two big league starts, Minnesota’s David Festa went 1-1 with an unsightly 10.80 ERA, .348 opponents’ average, four homers allowed and a 1.079 OPS.
About the only positives were the fact he struck out eight (six in his second start, despite giving up three homers and seven earned runs), walked one and picked up a win.
Over his next five appearances (four starts), however, Festa was 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA (3.34 FIP), 31-8 strikeout-walk rate, .212 opponents’ average and a 13.4 percent swinging-strike rate.
He has struck out 39, recording at least six strikeouts in five of his first seven outings.
From July 24 through Friday, when Festa took the mound against the Cardinals, the 24-year-old had the eighth-best strikeout rate (33 percent), the 27th-lowest opponents’ average and a top 25 swinging-strike rate (12.7 percent).
Festa has swing-and-miss stuff, something that was on display over four seasons in the minors when he struck out 11.2 per nine innings. In 15 Triple-A starts this season, despite having a 4.03 ERA and walking 3.9 per nine, he had a 16.7 percent swinging-strike rate.
In 2023, he had a 15.2 percent in Triple-A and 16.3 percent in Double-A. It was also on display in his Aug. 17 start against the Rangers when he struck out six, walked none and had 13 swinging strikes on 81 pitches (16 percent).
If there were downfalls, besides the elevated ERA, it would be his susceptibility to giving up the long ball (1.93 homers per nine) and the fact he hasn’t pitched deep into games.
His xERA (4.25) and xFIP (3.59) indicate things should get better, and Roto Rage believes he has the stuff to make it happen.
The 6-foot-6 right-hander has a 95 mph fastball, but most of his damage is done with his secondary pitches. Opponents are hitting .262 against his slider but have a 23.2 percent whiff rate against the pitch.
Hitters seem to have the most trouble with his changeup, a pitch he throws 28.1 percent of the time and has a .209 opponents’ average against. He has a 42.3 percent whiff rate with the off-speed pitch.
Can Festa’s swing-and-miss stuff help your team? Roto Rage believes so, because after Friday’s start, he’s lined up for some favorable matchups.
His next start could come against the injury-ravaged Braves, a team that is hitting .243 in the second half and has the second-most strikeouts in that time frame.
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The righty could then face the Rays, a team hitting .224 against righties this season and .213 since the All-Star break with the seventh-most strikeouts, before facing a solid Royals lineup.
After that start, Festa could be looking at finishing the season against the Reds, who are hitting .228 in the second half, the AL Central-leading Guardians, a team hitting .216 with the second-worst OPS (.650) in the majors since the Midsummer Classic, and the Marlins. Not only is Miami hitting .239 as a team with the second-worst OPS, they struck out 188 times in their first 19 games in August, the seventh-most in the league.
The most important skills to look for in starting pitchers are the ability to generate whiffs and limit hard contact, which Festa had done this month — going 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA (2.57 FIP), 14 percent swinging-strike rate and a .216 opponents’ average. He is widely available and should be on your radar for that final push.
Big hits
Mark Vientos 3B, Mets
Entered Friday on a 10-game hit streak, going 14-for-39 (.359) with three homers, 10 RBIs, seven runs and a 1.124 OPS during that stretch.
Bailey Ober SP, Twins
Has not lost since July 10, going 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA, 39-10 strikeout-walk rate, .144 opponents’ average and 14 percent swinging-strike rate in his past six starts. He is 7-1 with a 2.09 ERA in his past 11 starts.
Joey Bart C, Pirates
Hit .329 with six homers, 15 RBIs and a .996 OPS in 19 games before Friday, and hit .295 with eight big flies and a .911 OPS in 32 games since July 9.
Gavin Lux 2B/OF, Dodgers
Had at least one hit in 24 of his past 30 games before Friday, hitting .367 with seven homers, 21 RBIs, 17 runs and a 1.116 OPS.
Big whiffs
Walker Buehler SP, Dodgers
In his first two starts off the IL, he owns a 7.36 ERA with a 4-7 strikeout-walk rate and .344 opponents’ average. He is 0-3 with a 6.97 ERA and .326 opponents’ average over his past seven starts.
Craig Kimbrel RP, Orioles
No longer the closer after blowing two saves and going 1-2 with a 9.53 ERA, 12 walks and five homers allowed in 12 appearances since July 14.
Matt Waldron SP, Padres
Has allowed 28 earned runs over his past 24 innings (10.50 ERA), and opponents have hit .324 against him with six homers in that span.
Randy Arozarena OF, Mariners
Hit .193 with 22 strikeouts and a .633 OPS in his first 17 games this month. Struck out 27 times and hit .224 in his first 22 games in Seattle.
Check swings
— Though Jackson Merrill had a six-game hit streak snapped Thursday, he entered Friday hitting .369 with six homers, 25 RBIs, 23 runs, three stolen bases and a 1.063 OPS in 27 games since July 20.
— Ryan Pepiot, the most added pitcher in ESPN leagues this week, was 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 10-2 strikeout-walk rate, .191 opponents’ average and 15 percent swinging-strike rate in his first two starts off the IL. He is 3-1 with a 2.02 ERA and .172 opponents’ average over his past seven starts, and has allowed three earned runs or less in 15 of his 19 starts.
— Though he was 1-2 over his past seven starts, Milwaukee’s Tobias Myers owned a 1.83 ERA, 34-8 strikeout-walk rate, .230 opponents’ average and .606 OPS in that span. He was 5-3 with a 2.00 ERA, .221 opponents’ average and .593 OPS in his past 13 starts.
— Oakland’s Osvaldo Bido’s 4.30 ERA as a starter is a bit deceiving because of one bad start in which he allowed seven earned runs. He had a 2.50 ERA in his five other starts, and is 2-1 with a 1.00 ERA, .150 opponents’ average and a 12 percent swinging-strike rate in his past three starts.
— Toronto’s Bowden Francis entered Saturday’s start with a 4.38 ERA and .204 opponents’ average in his first seven starts, but was 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA, 22-1 strikeout-walk rate, .108 opponents’ average and a 14 percent swinging-strike rate over his past three starts.
— In his first 9 ¹/₃ innings pitching out of the Dodgers’ bullpen, Michael Kopech is 1-0 with two saves, four holds, 13 strikeouts (12.5 per nine innings) and a 20 percent swinging-strike rate. Not only hasn’t he allowed an earned run, but opponents are hitting .035 against him.
Team name of the week
I Can Buy Myself Bauers
