The sleeper page was asleep for most of Week 15. The Browns’ passing game was a mess, Sincere McCormick and Zach Ertz got hurt. Stone Smartt beat his projection (he’s also a reasonable pick moving forward), but it’s not like 5-50-0 is a week-winning return.
Let’s try to flip the script in Week 16.
QB Drake Maye at Bills (13%)
Maye’s rookie year has been an overwhelming success, as he’s remained poised and accurate despite mediocre help around him (the New England offensive line is a problem, and the receiver room lacks a true No. 1 option). Maye also helps his cause with his athleticism and resourceful running. He’s quietly the QB12 in cumulative fantasy points since gaining the starting job in Week 6.
Nobody expects New England to challenge Buffalo, but the Patriots will likely have to throw more often than usual, standard procedure for a two-touchdown underdog. Maye should be in the 16-19 point range this week.
QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Rams (40%)
I suppose it’s better late than never, as Rodgers finally hit the 300-yard plateau two weeks ago and then exploded for 27 fantasy points last week. The Rams defense has been gettable for opposing quarterbacks, giving up the ninth-most QB points to opponents.
And Rodgers is finally starting to look comfortable again with Davante Adams — they were unstoppable in the second half against Jacksonville. Rodgers should be good for multiple touchdown passes and although the Rams didn’t show up on offense last week, I could see this game turning into a sneaky shootout.
WR Jalen McMillan at Cowboys (38%)
It’s not unusual to see rookie receivers spike their production in the latter stages of the season, when they’ve gained some experience and built some trust. McMillan is one of those cases, with a useful 9-134-3 line the past two games.
The Tampa Bay-Dallas game has the highest total on the week, and the Cowboys are the 10th-best matchup for opposing receivers. I figure McMillan will see 6-8 targets on Sunday night, with some of that work coming in the scoring area.
WR Rashod Bateman vs. Steelers (27%)
I’d like you to add and stash Bateman with an eye toward Week 17 when he draws the leaky Houston secondary. Pittsburgh is a difficult Week 16 matchup — the Steelers defend Lamar Jackson better than the rest of the league — and Bateman was quiet (2-30-0) in the previous meeting.
That all said, Bateman also has four touchdowns in his past five games and the Ravens like to take a few deep shots to him every week. Assuming Bateman’s midweek foot injury is no concern, he’s worth considering as an emergency play this week — and a worthwhile depth add if you’re looking ahead.
TE Brenton Strange at Raiders (22%)
It’s odd to see Strange this widely available after his 11-catch game against the Jets. Obviously, no one expects Strange to repeat that line — and Jacksonville surely won’t throw as much as it did last week — but he’s nonetheless the No. 2 read in this passing game and an easy target for backup QB Mac Jones.
Strange is dealing with a shoulder injury, so track his late-week practice status. But assuming he’s cleared, I think 5-6 catches are a starting point for him against a mediocre Raiders defense.
RB Kendre Miller at Packers (30%)
A lot of moving parts on this one, as the Saints play Monday night and we don’t know yet if Alvin Kamara (groin) will be available. The Saints are also playing a backup quarterback and are going against a surging Green Bay defense. This game could easily get out of hand, with the Packers favored by about two touchdowns.
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But Miller has looked decent the last two weeks and if Kamara is scratched, you’d figure Miller should see 12-15 touches no matter how competitive the game is. That type of workload is a currency in the fantasy world.
RB Alexander Mattison vs. Jaguars (43%)
I actually think Ameer Abdullah is a better player than Mattison right now, but they do different things. Abdullah’s fantasy case is better when the Raiders are underdogs (he’s the third-down back), but Mattison has a more plausible path to touches given that Las Vegas is actually a slight favorite over the Jaguars.
Jacksonville’s defense doesn’t stop much of anything, and that includes the run — it’s the third-best matchup for opposing backs with respect to fantasy points scored. Mattison saw double-digit carries in four straight games during the middle of the year, and I suspect he already has that workload in his back pocket as we get closer to game day. Volume is your best friend in the backfield.
RB Antonio Gibson at Bills (11%)
I’m wondering when the Patriots will recognize Gibson as one of their impact players. He’s averaging 5.86 yards per carry over the past five games, and he showed explosiveness as a receiver in the loss to Arizona. The passing role in particular will likely expand this week as New England figures to fall into a negative game script against heavily-favored Buffalo. I can envision a setup where Gibson reaches double-digit points in any league that has some version of PPR scoring.
