Usually, my Pulse Check column is a happy place where we talk about ascending players or positive production, and whether or not we can trust it. This week’s article is a wee bit different.
Receivers were flat-out ugly this week before the afternoon games. Perhaps Ja’Marr Chase sucked up all the fantasy points and left the remaining elite talent with nothing to work with. When the top-scoring receivers include names like Marquez Valdes-Scanting — whom I mentioned in my early pickups video — Tylan Wallace, Devaughn Vele, Adonai Mitchell and Mack Hollins, there’s a major problem.
It’s not unusual for positions to have a down week, but this isn’t the first time we’ve seen big names flop and many of these names aren’t just battling their own woes. Quarterback injuries and underwhelming performances are affecting receivers across the board. Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers, DJ Moore, DeAndre Hopkins and Brian Thomas all finished with less than 10 points (and Deebo Samuel just made it over 10).
Is this a sign of things to come?
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Let’s start with the least concerning performance of the week. Jefferson had five receptions on nine targets for 48 yards in a very unusual game. Aside from a few tough matchups, the Jacksonville defense has generally been a feast for opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers. The Jags have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the fifth-most to opposing wide receivers heading into the week. Frankly, I expected this to be a top-10 performance from Sam Darnold, and Jefferson’s best outing of the season, so his 7.3 fantasy points were wildly disappointing.
While T.J. Hockenson saw a major increase in targets with nine, Jefferson’s workload was still on par with his typical usage — it was just the limited yardage and lack of a touchdown that made the day so underwhelming from a fantasy perspective. Jefferson remains the dominating force in the Vikings offense.
However, there are some concerns for Jefferson moving forward regarding Darnold’s recently messy play.
Pulse check: Are Darnold’s true colors starting to show?
Darnold’s been racking up turnovers recently and that early season stability is quickly waning. The good news is Jefferson’s volume shouldn’t be a concern going forward. The bad news is Darnold’s lack of elite play puts a slight cap on Jefferson’s ceiling. That said, Jefferson’s capped ceiling is still better than the vast majority of receivers. In a season where elite wide receivers have massively underperformed across the board, Jefferson has remained one of the most consistent players. Any limitations moving forward are minor in comparison to what we’re seeing across the league.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
We’ll pivot from low concern with Justin Jefferson to someone hanging on by a thread: Malik Nabers. Heading into the week, Nabers had finished outside the top 25 receivers for three consecutive weeks, yet he was ranked as a top-five receiver this week. The logic was reasonable: Carolina’s defense has generally been friendly this season, and WR1s facing the Panthers have had no issue with volume.
Targets weren’t the issue for Nabers this week, as he had 10 of them. Unfortunately, he caught just six of them for 50 yards. The last time we saw Nabers catch a touchdown was in Week 3, and it’s looking like that early season boom — when he finished as a WR1 for three straight weeks — was a mirage. Daniel Jones simply doesn’t seem capable of helping Nabers reach his full potential.
Pulse check: Is it time to stop viewing Nabers as a WR1?
In theory, sheer volume can push Nabers back into the top 10. The Giants are heading into a much-needed bye week, after which they do have a very pass-friendly schedule for the remainder of the fantasy season. However, 10 targets alone won’t cut it. To perform as a WR1, Nabers needs enough volume to reach strong yardage and secure touchdown opportunities. It’s tough to imagine Daniel Jones suddenly turning things around and delivering touchdowns across the entire receiving corps. While we shouldn’t panic to the level of benching Nabers, we should lower expectations rest-of-season.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
For every ounce of concern I have for Malik Nabers moving forward, multiply that by 100 for my overall panic about DJ Moore. The problem with Moore isn’t just quarterback-related. Target share is a major concern where we’ve reached a critical, possible point of no return for Moore. Moore hasn’t exceeded five fantasy points since Week 5, and that Week 5 performance was his only WR1 finish of the season and one of just two double-digit fantasy point games.
Matt Harmon and Dalton Del Don might have their “coping corner” on The Fantasy Football Forecast, but if I could create a place beyond that of the “coping corner,” Moore would be front and center.
It’s time we come to terms with the Chicago offense. Prior to the bye week when they were on a hot streak and the offense was clicking, they simply benefited from a stretch of weak defenses. Since the bye week, they’ve faced tougher matchups and it won’t let up moving forward. The remaining schedule includes all of Chicago’s matchups within the NFC North, with a tough game against San Francisco and only one favorable matchup against Seattle.
Pulse check: Have we truly reached a point of no return with Moore?
I truly don’t see a path to success for Moore unless Caleb Williams makes a dramatic leap in his development. This isn’t meant to be negative about Williams; he’s a rookie doing rookie things behind a terrible offensive line and he still has room to grow. While it’s easy to look at him with disappointment compared to someone like Jayden Daniels, this is simply part of his process and a function of his environment. Unfortunately, that process means the receiving corps will struggle, and Moore simply can’t be trusted moving forward.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Thomas is another receiver who will likely continue to suffer for the remainder of the season with quarterback woes now that Trevor Lawrence is potentially missing extended time; Mac Jones will be BTJ’s quarterback for the foreseeable future.
We talked about this matchup earlier when discussing Jefferson. This was just a strange game between Minnesota and Jacksonville and, for every ounce of disappointment in Darnold, Jones was on another level of terrible, completing just 14 passes for 111 yards and throwing two interceptions. Evan Engram was the only usable fantasy asset, while the run game was ineffective. Thomas managed just two receptions for 12 yards.
Pulse check: Should we bench Thomas moving forward?
I struggle to see any scenario where Thomas can move forward positively with Jones at quarterback. Volume will be scarce and touchdowns will be nonexistent. Next week’s matchup against Detroit might favor volume, but I simply can’t trust this Jacksonville offense. After Detroit, the Jags have a bye week, followed by mostly tough pass matchups except for one against Las Vegas.
If Lawrence is done for the season, Thomas might be done as well.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Hopkins had an underwhelming day with just four receptions on five targets for 56 yards, but let’s cut to the chase: Hopkins gets a pass here.
Facing Patrick Surtain II is no easy task. The fact that Hopkins managed to produce something is a good sign. Although Hopkins is playing slightly fewer snaps than Xavier Worthy, the difference isn’t significant and the targets per snap still clearly favor Hopkins.
Pulse check: Is Hopkins the clear WR1 for Kansas City?
The Chiefs face another tough pass defense next week against Buffalo. However, while the Bills’ pass defense is incredibly stout, it’s a different situation for Hopkins, as he wouldn’t be shadowed by a shutdown corner in this matchup. We can still feel comfortable with Hopkins as the Chiefs’ WR1 and should start him with confidence next week, despite the challenging matchup.
