Fantasy Football: Surprising top-10 scorers at each position relative to ADP and if their production is sustainable

With five weeks worth of data this NFL season, it’s a great time to look back and see which of the best-performing players in fantasy football are outproducing their Yahoo ADP from the summer. Here we’ll dive into the top-10 scorers at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, as well as the top five scores at tight end (since it’s just a weirder position heavily skewed by touchdowns) and examine whether the biggest outperformers can keep up the pace.

Matt Harmon examines players in the top 10 at their position who had a lower ADP and whether their performances are sustainable.

Quarterback

Daniel Jones, Giants – 22 spots

The 22-spot outperforming designation is a bit misleading, considering Daniel Jones was not drafted enough to have an ADP in Yahoo leagues. That’s how much of a shock this season has been for the Colts quarterback.

I’m also buying some level of sustainability for this one. The Colts have scored on 65% of their drives so far this season, by far the highest rate in the league — the Bills are second at 53%. They’ve had some cakewalk matchups mixed in but have also faced difficult top units with strong pass rushes like the Broncos and Rams. Shane Steichen gives Jones an answer on every play, the Colts have talented pass-catchers and an excellent ground game, to which Jones has contributed in key moments. He’s converted 83.3% of his third-down runs into first downs and is tied with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes for second among quarterbacks in red-zone rushing touchdowns with three. All of that sounds like a fantasy starter to me.

Matthew Stafford, Rams – 19 spots

If you’re going to be a fringe top-five fantasy quarterback in today’s NFL without rushing ability, you need to be white-hot as a passer. That’s precisely the level at which Matthew Stafford is operating right now.

To put a finer point on it, Stafford’s last two games of 389 and 375 passing yards are his two highest marks since joining the Rams in 2022. He’s thrown for three-plus touchdowns without an interception just five times in his four seasons with the team, and two of them have been in the last two games.

It’s going to be difficult for Stafford to maintain this level of fantasy production without any rushing component. However, the Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combination is a special wide receiver duo and the defense has enough holes in the secondary to keep them in need of pass-heavy scripts. I don’t expect top six the rest of the way but there will be more spike weeks than usual in this environment.

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Running back

Quick note: It should not come as a shock that these two surprise running backs are guys who play in some of the most efficient rushing ecosystems in the NFL right now. I wrote about both the Cowboys and Jaguars run games and why new faces have turned those units around from a design perspective this season in my piece on the top-12 run games in the first month of the season. For some full-on nerd rushing game design notes, hit that piece. I’ll focus more on the guys as players in the space below.

Javonte Williams, Cowboys – 42 spots

Javonte Williams has done more than run well in a well-designed unit. He’s been a steady presence who gets what is blocked and more. Just 7.6% of Williams’ runs have gone for zero or negative yards this season, which is the lowest rate among the top-24 fantasy running backs. His burst to hit holes is noticeably improved and he appears to be a better fit in this ground game than what he was tasked with in Denver.

Williams has been on the field for 74% of the Cowboys’ snaps this season, the ninth highest among running backs. No one is coming for his job. This isn’t changing any time soon.

Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars – 26 spots

I told folks all offseason to take their shots on Jaguars running backs because, despite the situation having some ambiguity from a workload perspective, I was confident in the new ecosystem under Liam Coen. Travis Etienne Jr. has been the clear correct answer in what has indeed been a well-designed run game.

The Jaguars are running a ton of zone concepts and Etienne is confidently reading things out right now. He’s finding cutback lanes for both explosive runs, and when he needs to avoid negative carries. While Bhayshul Tuten is an exciting talent and flashes every week, with the way Etienne is playing right now, he needs to lose the job with his own efforts. I don’t see much evidence that this is about to happen.

Wide receiver

Quentin Johnston, Chargers – 56 spots

We’re done debating whether Quentin Johnston has made an individual breakout this season. The case is settled; he’s taken the Year 3 leap.

The question now is whether he can keep up a fantasy WR1 season. I’m slightly more skeptical there and it has little to do with Johnston’s play, target competition with Ladd McConkey due for better days, etc. I’m worried that the Chargers offensive ecosystem is beginning to come apart at the seams. The team seems to sustain new injuries along the offensive line every week and just put tone-setting rookie running back Omarion Hampton on IR. Every week, it’s something.

The wide receiver room in Los Angeles is crowded. Keenan Allen leads the group with a 25% target share on the year, Johnston sits at 23% and McConkey at 19%. While it’s nice that no tight end or fourth receiver is in the mix, the Chargers are going to need to operate at peak efficiency for all three of those guys to push for consistent boom weeks. Given some of the injuries on the line, I’m skeptical we’ll see that for the next few weeks, at least until Joe Alt gets back. However, Justin Herbert remains a top-line passer and Johnston is playing good ball. I don’t foresee a massive dip.

Deebo Samuel Sr., Commanders – 34 spots

Deebo Samuel Sr. has quietly been an excellent draft choice for managers this season and a shrewd pickup by the Commanders front office. I don’t think people are talking about him enough.

The Commanders have gotten the best out of Samuel by using him as a slot receiver at, by far, the highest rate of his career.

Samuel has always been a better zone-beater than man-beater throughout the course of his career. His performance against man coverage was particularly poor last year but Washington has offset any of those worries by sticking him inside. Getting some good years out of a wideout with a lot of mileage by changing their role to be more slot-focused is a tried-and-true strategy for NFL teams. I expect Samuel to continue producing in this role, as long as he stays healthy, but he may dip out of the top 10 when Terry McLaurin gets back in action.

Emeka Egbuka, Bucs – 32 spots

Emeka Egbuka has been a revelation as a rookie receiver. He was one of my favorite targets in drafts this summer and he’s way outkicked my expectations.

The best part is that the rookie’s film matches up to the production. The route running, the body positioning at the catch point and especially his feel for zone coverage is uniquely strong for a first-year receiver.

At some point here in the next few weeks, Mike Evans will return for this team. That will take some targets off the board for Egbuka but it will also allow him to move around the formation more often, as he’s been holding down the X-receiver spot in Evans’ absence. Not that he needs an efficiency boost but he’ll get more layup targets over the middle when that happens.

In general, it is unwise to bet against obviously gifted, ascending, young wide receivers who have the tape and production to back up their worth. You won’t catch me among that crowd.

Tight end

Hunter Henry, Patriots – 13 spots

Hunter Henry is second behind only Theo Johnson (take notice there) in red zone targets at the tight end position with seven. Those two guys and Jake Ferguson are the only players at the position with four end zone targets on the season.

Scoring touchdowns is a big part of outperforming expectations at tight end, but so is being on the field consistently and being a top-two target-earner on your team. Henry is one of just 10 tight ends who have been on the field for more than 80% of his team’s snaps. While Stefon Diggs is the clear No. 1 on the team and has been targeted on a whopping 46% of his routes the last week, Henry is second on the season overall with 28 looks. The non-Diggs receivers here are nice role players but no high-volume options. I’d be shocked to see a TE1 overall finish from Henry but he’s likely to be a sneaky value top-10 option at the position the rest of the way.

Jake Ferguson, Cowboys – 11 spots

Jake Ferguson leads the tight end position by a country mile with 41 receptions. Trey McBride is second with 29. The Cowboys offense is well-designed in both the run and pass game. Dak Prescott is playing good football and their defense will force them into pass-heavy game scripts. We don’t have to overthink this one; Ferguson can keep this up.

Dalton Kincaid, Bills – 11 spots

It’s exciting for Bills fans to see Dalton Kincaid take a clear step forward this season. He looks more confident at the catch point and his timing with Josh Allen in zone coverage is notably improved. I’m buying him as a step-forward player for Buffalo.

However, he is working against the odds to keep a top-three season up at the position based on his role with the team. Since Kincaid still isn’t a plus-asset as an in-line blocker and the Bills are so dedicated to their run game, he loses snaps in 12 personnel to blocking specialist Jackson Hawes alongside Dawson Knox. Buffalo is attempting to be less siloed in their run and pass game by mixing in Hawes over a sixth offensive lineman, as they did last season. So that still creates a tight end rotation on passing downs.

While Kincaid is second among tight ends in fantasy points, he ranks 26th in route participation at 59.9%. He’s just going to have to see more time on the field to keep up that scoring. He’s pretty clearly their best downfield receiver right now but doesn’t help them in the run game, which complicates this equation.