Jalen McMillan vs. DAL
McMillan is coming off another strong showing in Week 15. The rookie caught five of his six targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. He’s now scored in back-to-back games, and he’s now set career highs in receiving yards in two straight contests.
McMillan struggled earlier this season when both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were out. There were a lot of expectations for McMillan to take over as the Bucs number one receiver during this time and he fell short of these expectations. He played just one game in Week 8 as the team’s number one receiver where he posted four catches for 35 yards. McMillan would go on to miss Weeks 9 and 10 with a hamstring injury.
But over the past two weeks the third-round rookie is breaking out. It seems like a combination of good play calling, more reps in the NFL and the return of Evans. Evans being back has taken defensive attention away from McMillan. Over the past two weeks, McMillan has averaged 18 points per game and now he’ll take on the Cowboys 24th ranked secondary according to PFF. McMillan is a solid FLEX option this week.
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Malik Nabers vs. ATL
Nabers continues to find success as a fantasy receiver despite extremely volatile quarterback play. Tommy DeVito was named the Giants starter entering Week 15, but he suffered an injury after playing the first 47% of the snaps. DeVito was replaced by Tim Boyle, who was one of the worst QBs in the NFL last season by many accuracy and efficiency metrics. Despite dealing with bottom-tier QB play in Week 15, Nabers was still able to produce 10 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown. This was Nabers’ first touchdown in over two months and his 19.2 fantasy points placed him in the 1op 10 at the position for the first time since Week 4 against the Cowboys.
This week, Nabers will face the Falcons as a 10-point underdog. This game sets up for the Giants to play from behind and likely throw 35+ times like they did last week as 15-point underdogs. The Falcons allow the sixth most receiving yards per play and the fourth most receiving touchdowns this season. Nabers ranks second in the NFL with 11.4 targets per game the past two months behind only Ja’Marr Chase. Nabers is a must start in Week 16.
Brian Thomas Jr. vs. LV
Thomas Jr. is coming off a monster performance in Week 15 against the Jets. Coach Doug Pederson stated he wanted to get him more involved early on after Thomas didn’t have a first half catch in Week 14. Pederson held true to this as Thomas caught four balls and a touchdown on the opening drive of the game. He would later score a 19-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter, finishing his day with an impressive 10 catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns. Thomas earned 14 targets in this game, his most on the season, and he’s now earned at least 10 targets in three straight games.
Since the Jaguars Week 12 bye, Thomas is averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game on 12 targets per game. He ranks top five among all WRs during this stretch in both usage and fantasy production. This week, Thomas gets another chance to keep this hot streak going against the Raiders dead last ranked secondary according to PFF. Las Vegas allows the third most EPA per passing play and the seventh most receiving touchdowns this season. Expect another solid day for Thomas and the Jaguars passing attack.
Adam Thielen vs. ARI
It was a quiet day for Thielen in Week 15 against the Cowboys. Thielen produced five catches for 51 yards, failing to finish as a top-20 receiver for the first time in three weeks. Despite the mediocre fantasy day, Thielen still saw strong usage. He once again led the team with a 26% target share and led the team in routes run.
Rookie Jalen Coker returned and had a big day, producing over 100 yards and a touchdown while leading the team in snaps and earning six targets. This was a strong day for Coker who has played well when given extended playing time this season. Coker does threaten Thielen’s target share but WR Xavier Legette injured his groin in Week 15 so there’s a chance Coker just replaces Legette’s usage in the offense moving forward.
Thielen has a great bounce-back opportunity entering Week 16. The Panthers are four-point home underdogs against the Cardinals. Historically, being a home underdog sets up nicely for offensive production. We typically see more pass attempts for the underdog in a friendly environment at home. Arizona’s defense just allowed Drake Maye to complete 19 of 23 passes for over 200 yards. The week prior, Geno Smith completed 24 of 30 passes for 233 yards. Bryce Young can find success in this matchup and his go to receiver this past month has been Thielen. You can start the Panthers veteran WR again this week.
