Set your Week 17 fantasy football lineups with Dalton Del Don’s key start/sit advice for every game on the slate.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
Start: Ladd McConkey
McConkey and Justin Herbert should be healthier coming off extra rest, and the rookie wideout ranks eighth in yards per route run this season. McConkey’s target rate has jumped to 27.7%, and he ranks top-five in fantasy points per target versus man coverage, which New England has used at the league’s second-highest rate (39.1%). Christian Gonzalez will likely shadow Quentin Johnston, so McConkey is a top-20 WR this week.
Sit Drake Maye, who sports a 3:7 TD:INT ratio over 268 dropbacks versus zone coverage (h/t TruMeda), which Los Angeles has used at the league’s second-highest rate (77.8%). Quarterbacks also typically run less against zone.
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
Start: Bo Nix
Nix has thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games, and he’s started to run again over the last two. Denver should be throwing more than usual in a matchup with a 49.5-point total. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and that’s while facing Cooper Rush, Mason Rudolph and Dorian Thompson-Robinson over the last three weeks. Cincinnati has also ceded the most rushing yards per game (31.9) to QBs this year. Nix is a top-10 QB this week.
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Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Start: Matthew Stafford
Stafford has been a fantasy bust over the last two weeks, but both matchups came outdoors in shaky weather. He averaged just 23 pass attempts over that span. Saturday night should be different back at home, and the Rams have the second-highest implied team total (28.5 points) this week. Bryce Young just had the best fantasy game of his career last week versus Arizona, which possesses one of the league’s lowest pressure rates; Stafford’s completion percentage ranks 36th when pressured this season but second (73.5%) when he’s kept clean. Stafford is a sneaky start this week.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Sit: Amari Cooper
Sauce Gardner looks likely out, and Cooper has upside after seeing the most air yards in any game this season three weeks ago. But he’s totaled just two targets and 10 yards over two games since, and Sunday’s game has the potential for heavy rain. Moreover, the Jets have ceded the second-most fantasy points to the slot but the fewest to the perimeter, where Cooper has run 81% of his routes.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Start: Chig Okonkwo
Okonkwo has racked up 17 catches on 21 targets over the last two weeks when he’s been fantasy’s TE2. More red-zone looks would be nice, but Okonwko’s target per route run rate jumps to 23.7% and his yards per route run leaps to 1.60 with Mason Rudolph this season. Okonkwo is a legit athlete who gets a Jacksonville defense allowing the most EPA/pass this season. Okonkwo is a top-12 tight end this week.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Start: Alexander Mattison
Mattison saw 19-of-32 RB opportunities last week. He split routes with Ameer Abdullah, but Mattison is the favorite for red-zone work. The Raiders are rare favorites against a comically depleted Saints’ team, so game script should be more favorable than usual Sunday. New Orleans has yielded the fifth-most fantasy points and an NFL-high 17 rush touchdowns to running backs this season.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Temper expectations: Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard was fantasy’s RB2 last week, and he’s the RB11 in “expert consensus ranks” this week, so he’s tough to bench. But you can explore any possible alternatives given Hubbard’s tough matchup. The Buccaneers are a pass-funnel defense allowing the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks. Tampa Bay has also ceded the fourth-lowest EPA/rush. No running back has reached double-digit fantasy points versus the Bucs since Week 10.
Moreover, game script could be an issue with Carolina eight-point underdogs. Hubbard has been fantasy’s RB1 (25.3 ppg) by a wide margin and has averaged 143.8 yards from scrimmage during wins this season, but he’s been the RB21 (11.4 ppg) and averaged 71.9 YFS in losses. Hubbard was the RB61 when these teams met in Week 13, although Jonathon Brooks was active then. Hubbard has also been limited by a knee injury in practice, so Bucky Irving is the far preferred fantasy start in this matchup.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sit: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle led the NFL in rushing over Weeks 13-15 thanks in part to a highly favorable schedule, but that ended last week, and he gets another one of the league’s toughest run defenses Sunday. The Eagles have yielded the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks by a wide margin. Philadelphia has also allowed the second-lowest EPA/rush. The Cowboys will be missing CeeDee Lamb and sport the lowest implied team total (16.5 points) in the league this week. Even with Jalen Hurts appearing unlikely to play, Dallas remains touchdown underdogs, so game script may not be favorable. Dowdle is a bench candidate this week.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
Sit: Josh Downs
Downs would undoubtedly get a fantasy boost should Joe Flacco start Sunday. But he’s been just the WR45 with Anthony Richardson this season, and the Colts are optimistic AR can play this week. Game script may not require much passing by Indy facing a decimated Giants’ offense projected to score just 16.5 points. Downs required some lazy tackling to score his touchdown last week, and he finished with just four targets. Downs is a sit this week if Richardson gets the start.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
Sit: Jerry Jeudy
Dorian Thompson-Robinson had zero net passing yards at halftime last week, when the Browns produced only 67 catchable air yards; they averaged 171 with Jameis Winston starting. DTR is a major problem for Cleveland pass catchers, and he’s been named the starter again in Week 17. Thompson-Robinson is 0-for-11 with three picks on passes thrown 15+ yards this season, and Sunday’s game has potential for heavy rain. Jeudy has been limited in practice with a leg injury, and Cleveland sports a lowly 17.5-point implied total. Jeudy was fantasy’s WR2 over Weeks 11-15, but he’s only a desperation start this week.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Start: Jordan Love
Love has been just the QB28 since Week 8, as he’s been one of fantasy’s biggest disappointments over the season’s second half. Volume has been the major issue, as Love has gotten 8.7 YPA but averaged just 25.5 pass attempts over that eight-game span. The Eagles have attempted the fewest passes per game this season with 25.9. Green Bay has the league’s fourth-lowest pass rate over expectation this year, but things should be different Sunday against a pass-funnel Vikings’ defense. Minnesota has allowed the lowest EPA/rush but the most pass attempts (38.3 per game). Vikings’ opponents have the league’s highest pass rate (64.7%) this season.
While Love’s 6.1 YPA against man coverage is toward the bottom of the league, he ranks third in the NFL with a 9.1 YPA versus zone (h/t TruMedia). The Vikings have used zone coverage at the league’s fourth highest rate (76.8%), which is also a boost for Jayden Reed (his fantasy points per route run sees a 60% increase against zone). This matchup could be a shootout and is indoors with a 48.5-point total. Love is a top-10 QB this week.
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders
Start: Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson Jr. lost two fumbles over the first 17 minutes of last week’s game, when he posted his worst fantasy performance of the season during the semifinals. Robinson Jr. hadn’t committed a single fumble all season before Sunday’s game, and he was facing an Eagles defense that entered allowing the lowest EPA/rush since Week 9. Philadelphia hasn’t let a running back run for 100 yards this season, and the Eagles had ceded the fewest rush schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the previous five weeks. Moreover, Robinson Jr. has been game-script-sensitive all year, and the Commanders were trailing for most of the matchup.
Robinson Jr. carries extra risk now should he lose another early fumble in Week 17, but he should remain Washington’s lead back otherwise (Austin Ekeler might return). The Commanders are four-point favorites with a healthy implied team total (27.5 points) in a game with potentially heavy rain, so Sunday night’s matchup is more favorable. Robinson Jr. has gotten 5.1 YPC at home this season and sees good usage in the red zone, so he belongs in fantasy lineups this week.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Start: Jauan Jennings
Jennings is coming off back-to-back disappointing games, but he’s in a good spot to bounce back Monday night. The 49ers are down to their No. 4 or 5 RB (depending on Isaac Guerendo’s availability) facing a pass-funnel Detroit defense allowing the fifth-most pass attempts per game (35.3). Lions’ opponents have the league’s third-highest pass rate (62.3%), so volume should be there. Jennings ranks seventh in yards per route run this season, and he thrives against man coverage, which Detroit has used at the league’s highest rate (41.9%).
The 49ers’ offense isn’t the same without Trent Williams, but San Francisco still sports a healthy 24.5-point implied total. The Bears couldn’t expose an injury-ravaged Lions’ defense last week, but Detroit had allowed 79 points over its previous two games. Stick with Jennings this week.
