Early forecasts from the stat nerds aren’t bullish on the Yankees’ American League East chances.
FanGraphs released its first ZiPS projections earlier this week, and it’s not looking pretty for the Bronx Bombers if no more moves are coming this offseason.
The Yankees are projected to have 87 wins in 2026, the second-fewest in the division behind the Blue Jays (90), Red Sox (90) and Orioles (88).
Only the Rays (75) are being pegged for fewer victories.
That number would be the Yankees’ fewest over a full season since 2023, when they went 82-80 and missed the postseason, and second-fewest over the last decade.
Fangraphs is giving them just an 18.9 percent chance to win the division and a 41.4 percent chance at grabbing one of the three AL wild-card spots.
The underwhelming win estimate comes after a relatively quiet offseason for the Bombers.
The Yankees re-signed Cody Bellinger to a five-year, $162.5 million deal and brought back Trent Grisham after he accepted the qualifying offer, but did little else to improve the lineup.
Left-hander Ryan Weathers, acquired in a trade from the Marlins, will provide rotation depth, though being able to stay on the field has been a question for most of his career. The starting staff has plenty of other questions elsewhere, with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt all coming off surgeries and returning at various points post-Opening Day.
In the bullpen, the Yankees lost Devin Williams and Luke Weaver in free agency to the Mets.
Earlier this week, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman expressed confidence in his team’s roster.
“I’ve been openly willing to challenge anybody that we don’t have a championship caliber roster [and] team,’’ Cashman said. “And it’s our job to try to make it better along the way.”
