First look at Chiefs-Eagles: Early Super Bowl picks, big questions and matchups to know

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles are officially headed to Super Bowl LIX, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Feb. 9, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

With two weeks until the big rematch, we’re taking an early look at what you can expect in the matchup. Lindsey Thiry sets it up with what to know, and our NFL Nation reporters Adam Teicher and Tim McManus pick reasons for hope and concern for both teams. Seth Walder gives you some key stats to know, Aaron Schatz answers big questions surrounding the final game of the season, Dan Graziano judges one potential overreaction and Ben Solak explores the quarterback matchup.

Will Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ offense dominate? Could Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs really pull off the three-peat? Here’s everything you need to know.

Jump to:
Chiefs | Eagles | Key stats
Big questions
Overreaction | Quarterbacks
Betting

When: Sunday, Feb. 9, 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans | Tickets
Opening line: KC -1.5 (O/U 49.5)

This a rematch of Super Bowl LVII, which capped the 2022 season and put the Chiefs on a path toward a historic Super Bowl run.

The Chiefs came from behind to defeat the Eagles in that game, 38-35, then went on to defeat the San Francisco 49ers, 25-22, in Super Bowl LIVIII last season. Now, as the Chiefs make their fifth Super Bowl appearance over the past six seasons, they can become the first team in the Super Bowl era to win three consecutive championships.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid will make his sixth Super Bowl appearance, tying Don Shula for the second-most only behind Bill Belichick, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes ties John Elway with the second-most appearances for a starting quarterback in NFL history.

To earn a historic three-peat, Mahomes and the Chiefs must accomplish what few other teams have: Slow down quarterback Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley and get by the Eagles’ top-rated defense.

After a 2-2 start, Nick Sirianni — making his second Super Bowl appearance in four seasons as Eagles coach — made adjustments that enabled the Eagles to win 12 of their final 13 games.

Barkley, who arrived in Philadelphia via free agency over the offseason, led the NFL with 2,005 rushing yards. In their three postseason wins, Barkley scored five touchdowns.

Hurts has won five playoff game since 2022, the second-most in the NFL during that span behind only Mahomes. — Thiry

Kansas City Chiefs

Regular season: 15-2 | AFC seed: No. 1

Reason for hope: The Chiefs won’t necessarily have to score a lot of points to win their third straight Super Bowl because their defense has consistently kept them in games. Kansas City finished the regular season fourth in scoring defense (19.2 points per game). The pass rush, which had 10 sacks combined against the Texans and Bills this postseason, has also been productive of late.

Reason for concern: The protection for quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been shaky at times. Mahomes was sacked 36 times in the regular season, the most in his career, and another five times so far in the playoffs. The Chiefs benched three different players at left tackle before settling on Joe Thuney, who shifted outside from left guard. The consistent pressure contributed to Mahomes’ 67.6 QBR, the second-worst of his career for a full season. — Teicher

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Philadelphia Eagles

Regular season: 14-3 | NFC seed: No. 2

Reason for hope: The Eagles have the best defense and running game in the NFL — and they have worked hand-in-hand. Saquon Barkley is an explosive play waiting to happen, like we saw on the Eagles’ first snap of the NFC Championship Game, and he’s backed by an offensive line that eventually wears down any opposition through four quarters. With that style of play, it’s no surprise Philadelphia ranks No. 1 in time of possession (32:22). That means less stress on a defense that plays with the same type of bully mindset. The defense specializes in taking the ball away, the offense rarely turns the ball over and both sides are as physical as it gets. That makes them capable of beating any team.

Reason for concern: The passing game has left something to be desired. Some of that can be attributed to a purposefully conservative approach. With the ground game and defense performing at such a high level, there has been an increased focus on not turning the ball over through the air. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been excellent in that regard, giving the ball away just three times since the Eagles’ Week 5 bye. Still, the scheme borders on predictable and the product should really be better with talents like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith running routes. And now Hurts is dealing with a left knee issue, which could limit him as a runner and lead to more pure dropback situations. — McManus

Stats to know

The Chiefs’ offense is built on throwing the ball frequently and generating yards after catch (YAC). Kansas City ranks second in pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, meaning it passed far more often than we would expect given game situations than every other team besides Cincinnati. The Chiefs generated 0.16 EPA per play more on dropbacks compared to designed carries. When they do pass, YAC made up 58% of their receiving yards, which leads the league. Wideout Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs with 439 YAC.

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Sure, Brown had a quiet postseason before Sunday, but he had a truly ridiculous season if you’re willing to look beyond his somewhat pedestrian 1,067 total receiving yards. He actually recorded 3.3 yards per route run this regular season, which is the fourth-best mark by a receiver since 2007 (minimum 200 routes).

Brown’s total production was depressed due to him missing four games in an already run-heavy offense, but his play was stellar. Another number which backs that up is his 99 mark in ESPN’s overall receiver scores — tracking-based metrics that quantify a player’s ability to get open, make the catch and generate YAC relative to expectation. That’s the highest overall score by any player since 2017. It would be a mistake to ever count out Brown from having a massive Super Bowl. — Walder

Answering big questions

What does history say about the Chiefs’ quest to three-peat?

While the Chiefs are trying to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, they would not be the first NFL team to three-peat. The Packers won three straight NFL titles during the Curly Lambeau era from 1929 to 1931, although there were no playoff games and only 12 teams in the league. They also accomplished the same feat from 1965-67 during the Vince Lombardi era, which included wins in the first two Super Bowls after the 1966 and 1967 seasons.

The Chiefs are the first team to make the Super Bowl in Year 3 after two consecutive championships. Other teams made three straight Super Bowls but lost one of the first two to prevent a three-peat. The 1971-73 Dolphins lost Super Bowl VI to the Cowboys 24-3 before winning the next two championships. The Patriots came close after they won Super Bowl LI thanks to the infamous “28-3” comeback over the Falcons. But they lost to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII before defeating the Rams the next year.

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How does this season compare to the Eagles’ 2022 Super Bowl team?

The biggest difference between the 2022 Eagles and 2024 Eagles comes on offense. Surprisingly, the 2022 Eagles were more efficient running the ball with Miles Sanders as their lead back. Both the standard statistics and advanced metrics show the same story. The 2022 Eagles averaged 5.9 yards per play overall while the 2024 Eagles averaged 5.6 yards per play. In 2022, the Eagles ranked fifth in pass DVOA and led the NFL in rush DVOA. This season, the Eagles were only 14th in pass DVOA and sixth in rush DVOA.

Philadelphia did gain more yards per carry in 2024 than two seasons ago (4.9 versus 4.6), so you may be wondering how its DVOA was lower this season. The main reason is carry-by-carry consistency. The 2022 Eagles led the NFL with a 55% success rate on carries. The 2024 Eagles had only a 45% success rate, which ranked sixth. (This does not include scrambles.)

On defense, the big difference is stopping the run. Both the 2022 and 2024 Eagles had stellar defenses, as the 2022 Eagles ranked third in DVOA while the 2024 Eagles ranked first. The 2022 Eagles had the better pass defense; they allowed 4.9 net yards per pass compared to 5.1 this season. But this season’s Eagles were much better against the run. The Eagles ranked second in run defense DVOA behind the Broncos, while the 2022 Eagles ranked 19th. — Schatz

Judging one potential overreaction: Barkley is going to run all over the Chiefs

Barkley’s brilliant season continued Sunday, when he ran 60 yards for a touchdown on the Eagles’ first play from scrimmage and finished with 118 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game. He has been an unstoppable force all season, cementing himself as one of the great free agent signings of all time and becoming a finalist for the MVP award.

His 2,005 rushing yards during the regular season rank eighth all-time, and he has added 442 more over three playoff games. There’s little reason to think the Eagles won’t try to ride him to their second Super Bowl title in franchise history.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

It’s not that he can’t do it, but rather that the Chiefs aren’t likely to make it as easy on him as the Commanders and Rams did the past two weeks. Washington ranked 28th in the league this season in yards allowed per rush (4.8) and 27th in defensive rush success rate (54.9%). The Rams — whom Barkley ran for 205 yards against in the divisional round — tied for 23rd (4.6) and 25th (55.5%) in those categories, respectively.

Kansas City, meanwhile, tied for fourth in yards allowed per rush (4.1) and ranked 11th in defensive rush success rate (61.0%).

Barkley can have success against anyone, but the Chiefs are a solid bet to make it more difficult than the Eagles’ past two opponents. Also, Washington turned the ball over four times Sunday while the Chiefs entered the AFC title game on a streak of eight straight games without a turnover. Super Bowl-seasoned Kansas City should be a much tougher test for Barkley and the Eagles overall than upstart Washington. — Graziano

Quarterback matchup

Mahomes vs. Hurts

Any and every NFL quarterback would be at some disadvantage entering a Super Bowl against Mahomes. This will be Mahomes’ fifth appearance in the past six seasons (bonkers), his third consecutive Super Bowl (super bonkers) and potentially the first ever three-peat Super Bowl championship (unprecedentedly bonkers). While his 2024 numbers aren’t nearly as gaudy as those he posted with prime Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, he has become an unbelievably polished point guard who can erase multiple deficiencies that would otherwise cripple an NFL offense. The left tackle problems and the lack of a WR1 should have mattered for Kansas City, but they simply haven’t.

Hurts has come under scrutiny for shaky postseason play in a very cushioned role in the Eagles’ offense, but the NFC Championship Game was a nice reminder of his peak performances. He was far from perfect but made accurate throws into one-on-one coverage and bought time against big blitz looks. He isn’t asked to do as much in this offense as he was two years ago, yet he can still make opponents pay when they sell out against the run.

The big difference between these two, and perhaps the deciding factor in their rematch? Their play against pressure. Mahomes, with a liability at left tackle for much of the season, ranks second in the league in success rate when pressured and fourth in EPA per dropback. Hurts — behind the best line in the league — is 19th and 14th, respectively. — Solak

Betting nuggets

• The Eagles entered the season 11-1 to win the Super Bowl and +550 to win the NFC. They were tied for the second favorites to win the NFC entering the season with the Lions, trailing the 49ers (+260).

• Underdogs have won three of the past four Super Bowls. Since 2007, underdogs are 10-7 outright and 12-5 against the spread in the Super Bowl.

• The Eagles are 13-7 against the spread this season, including the playoffs.

• The Chiefs are 8-11 ATS. If they win the Super Bowl, they would have the worst ATS record by a Super Bowl champion all-time (2021 Rams were 10-11).