Florida State returns from Ireland hoping to bounce back from a shocking 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic.
On Monday night, the Seminoles host Boston College, which begins a new era under coach Bill O’Brien.
While the line remained flat at -10.5 in the opener against Georgia Tech, we’ve seen a massive shift in the odds this week, with Florida State down to -16.5 from an early open of -23.5.
In this preview, I’ll share my plan on how bettors can still recover some value, even at the current price.
Florida State vs. Boston College odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | +16.5 (-110) | +575 | o51.5 (-108) |
| Florida State | -16.5 (-110) | -850 | u51.5 (-112) |
Boston College outlook
When these teams met last season, Boston College came close to an outright win as a 27.5-point underdog, losing, 31-29.
The Seminoles would go on to finish undefeated in the regular season but failed to receive an invite to the College Football Playoffs following an injury to starting quarterback Jordan Travis.
That 2023 Florida State roster was one of the best in school history, considering it had 10 players drafted, just one short of tying the ACC record it set in 2013.
Boston College, meanwhile, returns the 12th-most starters in college football, per 247 Sports, with seven each on offense and defense an two on special teams.
Thus, the cupboards aren’t entirely barren for O’Brien as he returns to college football after recently serving as the Patriots’ offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.
O’Brien is widely regarded as an offensive guru who can inject dynamism into this Eagles team that ranked 115th in pass play percentage (41.49%) last year under former head coach Steve Addazio.
Florida State outlook
It’s been somewhat of a bumpy ride for DJ Uiagalelei since joining the college ranks. The California product is now playing for his second team in as many years after transferring from Clemson following the 2022 campaign.
Many thought Uiagalelei would be next up in the line of Clemson’s great quarterbacks after Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence.
However, the red-shirt senior has struggled to meet those lofty expectations.
Uiagalelei is a quarterback who is likely to divide opinions. You could argue that Seminoles coach Mike Norvell didn’t have enough trust in Uiagalelei to open up the playbook against Georgia Tech.
Despite being efficient and completing 19-of-27 (70.4%) pass attempts without throwing an interception, Uiagalelei resorted to checkdowns and didn’t push the ball down the field.
He wound up finishing the game with 193 passing yards.
Boston College vs. Florida State pick
The Seminoles received a considerable downgrade in my power ratings as numbers make them closer to a 14-point favorite against Boston College.
Nonetheless, I’d much rather have odds closer to the opening number of +23.5.
Thus, a better option would be to take advantage of some alternate FanDuel lines by parlaying Eagles at +21.5, with the game going over 44.5 points.
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This combination would boost our odds up to +131.
Although I was a bit harsh regarding my critique of Uiagalelei’s performance, it’s worth noting that he did encounter double-digit winds and rainy conditions at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin.
The weather in Tallahassee should be much more manageable, with clear skies and wind speeds less than five mph.
I expect both teams to have enough offense to surpass this alternate total.
Pick: Same-game parlay (+131, FanDuel): Boston College +21.5 points | Over 44.5 points
