From a South Carolina repeat to UConn ending its title drought: Six teams that could win it all

Heading into the women’s NCAA tournament, the South Carolina Gamecocks (30-3) have as many losses as they did in the past three seasons combined. They shared the SEC regular-season title with Texas, and the Gamecocks won the conference tourney, but they aren’t No. 1 in the Associated Press poll. And they have one blowout loss on their résumé, falling at home to UConn by 29 points on Feb. 16.

Yet the Gamecocks remain a favorite to reach their fifth consecutive Final Four, and they perhaps headline the short list of national championship contenders.

But this year, the title isn’t South Carolina’s to lose, which is how it felt the past two campaigns when the Gamecocks entered the NCAA tournament undefeated before running the table for the program’s third championship last season and losing in the national semifinals in 2023.

The top contenders for the 2024-25 championship are a mix of teams that have won the NCAA title in the past decade and others that haven’t even played in the Final Four during that time. While it’s always possible a surprise team could cut down the nets in Tampa, Florida, next month, the winner is likely to come from this group of six.

South Carolina Gamecocks

With its depth and talent, there’s good reason to think South Carolina is the favorite again.

South Carolina’s interior game was its biggest question mark entering the season. The Gamecocks lost a WNBA lottery pick post player for the second season in a row in 6-foot-7 center Kamilla Cardoso. Then 6-foot-2 junior forward Ashlyn Watkins‘ season ended in January due to a knee injury.

But the frontcourt is now a strength. Junior Chloe Kitts was named SEC tournament MVP, senior Sania Feagin is having the best season of her career and Joyce Edwards is among the country’s elite freshmen. Together, the forwards average over 31 points and 17 rebounds a game.

The guard corps of MiLaysia Fulwiley, Te-Hina Paopao, Tessa Johnson, Bree Hall and Raven Johnson cover all the bases coach Dawn Staley needs offensively and defensively, with none of them having to carry the load.

And the Gamecocks’ February losses to Texas and UConn seemed to refocus the team. They’ve dominated their past seven foes, six of which will be NCAA tournament teams. The SEC was very good this season, and it could put several teams in the Sweet 16. The Gamecocks being the best of that league means a lot for their national championship hopes.

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UCLA Bruins

Just like golf has the dreaded tag of best players to never win a major, UCLA has been one of best women’s programs to never make the NCAA Final Four. The Bruins won the 1978 AIAW national championship, but they haven’t broken through in the NCAA era. That could change this year.

The Bruins (30-2) lost both regular-season meetings with crosstown rival USC but won the third matchup in the Big Ten tournament championship game. Center Lauren Betts (19.6 points, 9.7 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game) asserted herself in that latest matchup, showing just how big a factor she is. When she gets position offensively, the 6-foot-7 junior is next to impossible to stop, and her defense can be the difference-maker for UCLA as a championship team. Junior guards Kiki Rice, Gabriela Jaquez and Londynn Jones are in their third season playing together; that experience could be crucial.

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UConn Huskies

The Huskies won four consecutive NCAA titles from 2013 to 2016, but they haven’t claimed the crown since. That’s less about what UConn hasn’t done and more about what other programs have done to improve, particularly South Carolina, which has become the most dominant program in women’s basketball. The Huskies also have had to deal with an avalanche of injury issues in recent years.

They’ve been mostly healthy this season, and the results speak for themselves. Guards Paige Bueckers (averaging 19.0 points and 4.9 assists) and Azzi Fudd (12.8 PPG) and forward Sarah Strong (16.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG) are big-time stars, and the Huskies’ role players are, as usual, talented and dependable.

Bueckers lost in the national semifinals as a freshman (2021) and a junior (2024) and in the national championship game as a sophomore (2022). She missed the 2022-23 campaign with a knee injury, and that’s the only season since 2006-07 that UConn hasn’t made the Final Four. Bueckers has been one of UConn’s greats, but she wants to seal that with an NCAA title. That will be a big motivator for the 31-3 Huskies.

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USC Trojans

The Trojans (28-3) won the Big Ten regular-season title by beating UCLA twice. But USC didn’t play that well in the second half of the tournament final loss to the Bruins, scoring just 22 points after halftime. USC’s only surprising defeat was at Iowa on Feb. 2, but that’s far in the rearview mirror.

Sophomore guard JuJu Watkins (24.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.5 APG) has reasserted herself as the top national player of the year hopeful, and senior forward Kiki Iriafen also is capable of taking over games. USC has the superstar quality and the cohesion as a team to win the NCAA title.

USC did just that in 1983 and 1984, and it also reached the NCAA final in 1986, only to lose to Texas. It has been a lengthy road for USC to get back to that elite level, but the Trojans are there, and they could at long last add a third championship. If it happens, it will come just as it did 40-plus years ago with a superstar — Los Angeles’ Watkins now, Riverside’s Cheryl Miller then — who stayed home in Southern California and led the way.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The 26-5 Irish have lost three of their past five games, and they didn’t get the chance to defend their ACC tournament title, falling to Duke in the semifinals. They were No. 1 in the AP poll earlier this season, but the Irish have dropped to No. 8. Why are we still including them as one of the top national championship contenders?

Two reasons: guard play, which is always big in the NCAA tournament, and that their recent losses were against fellow top ACC teams that know the Irish well. Few opponents are going to be able to guard Notre Dame as well as Duke did or have guards who can score with them as NC State and Florida State do.

Hannah Hidalgo has had some off games shooting, but she is averaging 24.2 points and hitting 40.7% of her 3-point shots. Olivia Miles (16.2 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Sonia Citron (13.8 PPG) are game-changing guards as well.

The Irish’s post game is a bigger question. But if starters Liatu King and Maddy Westbeld are healthy and with fellow forwards Kate Koval and Liza Karlen coming off the bench, Notre Dame is capable of again being the team that won 19 games in a row. That’s why among the top ACC teams, the Irish still get the nod over co-regular-season champion NC State and tournament champion Duke on this list of championship hopefuls. But the Irish are going to have to prove that during March Madness.

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Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns (31-3) tied for the SEC regular-season title during their first year in the league, which is impressive. Their only losses are to Notre Dame (in overtime) and twice to South Carolina, although they also beat the Gamecocks once.

Texas had the SEC’s best defense for the entire season (55.9 PPG) and during conference-only play (56.8 PPG). Coach Vic Schaefer has long been known as a defensive guru, helping Texas A&M win the 2011 NCAA title as an assistant and leading Mississippi State to the championship game in 2017 and 2018 as head coach. He came to Texas in 2020 with one goal: Get the Longhorns back to the Final Four for the first time since 2003 and win the program’s second national championship (1986).

Could both happen this season? Yes, but Texas would have to elevate its offense and do so quickly. The Longhorns were 10th in the SEC in scoring offense in conference games (71.3 PPG) and last in 3-point field goals made versus SEC foes (48 in 16 games). The Longhorns can’t change their identity this late in the season, but perhaps they can find more ways to get their best perimeter shooters (Shay Holle and Jordan Lee each have made 32 treys and leading scorer Madison Booker 25) better looks.