The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season.
SUNDAY
PANTHERS (+4.5) over Bengals: Andy Dalton has breathed new life into a Panthers squad that simply lost faith in Bryce Young. Dalton was among the best quarterbacks in the NFL last week and faces a pathetic defense in the Bengals, Dalton’s former team. It could be another shootout on Sunday. Bengals win with a late field goal.
JETS (-7.5) over Broncos: Expecting some home favorites of big numbers to actually cover this week, starting with the Jets. Aaron Rodgers was humming last week against the Patriots and has a long 10 days of rest, no travel, and Denver flying across country. A wonderful spot for the Jets to pick on a rookie QB on the road.
Steelers (-2.5) over COLTS: Will Anthony Richardson even survive this game? The Steelers hit impossibly hard. Put simply, Richardson cannot throw the ball much at all and takes far too many big hits to be a viable quarterback. The Colts are 16th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) compared to sixth for the Steelers, who are also fourth in total defensive DVOA.
Vikings (+3) over PACKERS: Jordan Love is expected to return for the Packers this weekend, but that Brian Flores defense is ferocious. Love could be a bit rusty, perhaps not healthy, and that is a bad match against Minnesota. We’re looking to bet the road dogs in this division rivalry.
TEXANS (-6.5) over Jaguars: Usually, the Jaguars are so bad that this would be an overreaction spot to bet back on Jacksonville. But the Texans lost last week too and were disappointing as well. Houston has the seventh-best defense in the NFL according to DVOA. This is a smash spot for Houston, and there’s no reason to believe in Jacksonville — still on the road and on a short week.
FALCONS (-2.5) over Saints: Saints are extremely banged up, and aside from a few bad coaching decisions unlucky officiating calls, the Falcons would have beaten the Chiefs. The Saints’ offensive line grade plummeted on Pro Football Focus from top in the NFL to 30th in the league. Alvin Kamara is questionable, adding to the uncertainty for The Big Easy crew.
Rams (+3) over BEARS: Coaching edge of the week, even with the injuries: Sean McVay opposite Matt Eberflus. And there’s Matthew Stafford versus Caleb Williams. Chicago’s defense could give Stafford fits, but Williams is unfit for this role as a favorite. McVay schemes the Rams against an overrated Bears defense and an offense ranked 32nd in DVOA. Yuck.
BUCCANNEERS (+1.5) over Eagles: Overreaction to a terrible performance as a big favorite. The Buccaneers are a great underdog but a bad favorite. As a favorite, Tampa Bay has gone 8-10 as a favorite recently after last week’s upset loss to Denver. Since last season, the Bucs are among the best in the league on the moneyline as an underdog, 7-7.
CARDINALS (-3.5) over Commanders: Is Jayden Daniels that good already? Or is the Cincinnati defense that bad? Either way we’re looking at a shootout here. The Commanders defense is the worst in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus and DVOA. Tough to take that level of bad when the Cardinals gave the seemingly unstoppable Bills all they could handle in Week 1.
Patriots (+10.5) over 49ERS: Ten days to prepare for the 49ers is a gift for the Patriots, 10.5 is a crazy number here. Jacoby Brissett is a solid enough starter to cover the spread, with a strong defense and run game that should keep the San Francisco offense at bay.
Browns (-1.5) over RAIDERS: We’re making business decisions here. Do not bet Antonio Pierce at anything less than a field goal. Cleveland isn’t great, we faded them successfully last weekend, but don’t think for a second that the Browns lose this game. These two squads are rated 30th and 31st in DVOA. Don’t watch this game, but make some money on it.
CHARGERS (+7) over Chiefs: Jim Harbaugh never truly needs a star quarterback, but if you give him one, he will win a Super Bowl. This line implies that Justin Herbert (questionable) won’t play. That’s fine by us, they will ride J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards with the league’s fourth-rated defense (PFF) to keep this one within reach.
RAVENS (-2.5) over Bills: This is one of the better “Sunday Night Football” games we have seen in recent years. I lean Baltimore as the squad that is more desperate, and Buffalo is really riding high after smashing Jacksonville. The Bills traveling on a short week is apart of the handicap as well, but make no mistake, these are two top teams in the NFL. Buffalo is No. 1 in DVOA, and Baltimore is No. 5.
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MONDAY
DOLPHINS (-1.5) over Titans: Will Levis or Tyler Huntley? Huntley starts this weekend and adds a nice running element to the offense that was an embarrassment under Skylar Thompson. They have to win a game at some point, but Will Levis might have to wait a week to snag a win, as they are the 32nd-rated team, according to PFF.
Seahawks (+3.5) over LIONS: Detroit has not looked nearly as dominant as we expected, given their talent. This should be an air affair on Monday. These are two top-ranked run defenses, according to PFF, and the Lions allowed just 3.6 yards per carry. Detroit isn’t trustworthy, and Goff is currently the 24th best quarterback in the NFL, according to PFF, while Geno Smith is rated No. 6. It’s a shootout that I expect Seattle to win by a field goal.
LAST WEEK: 7-8.
SEASON: 19-25.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
