While Texas should be considered elite, the Longhorns have played a relatively tame schedule to this point, smashing lower-end G5 teams like Colorado State, UTSA and UL Monroe and beating Michigan and Oklahoma — ranked teams I power-rate much lower than the market.
While Georgia hasn’t looked as dominant as it has in past years, in hindsight the Bulldogs have pieced together some excellent performances this season.
Their win over Clemson has aged well now that the Tigers are 5-1 behind college football’s hottest offense, and their one-point road win over Kentucky looks better after the Wildcats upset Ole Miss.
The loss to Alabama doesn’t look nearly as strong, but let’s not forget that Carson Beck and Co. outscored the Crimson Tide 34-13 over the game’s final 40 minutes.
The Bulldogs are still chock-full of two-way talent and have flashed moments of brilliance during an up-and-down season.
Kirby Smart is a master motivator, and the Longhorns haven’t faced a team this talented yet.
I expect this week’s top-five matchup to live up to the hype and ultimately be decided by a field goal or less.
The pick: Georgia +5.
Kentucky (-1.5) over FLORIDA
Kentucky is in a perfect bounce-back spot after losing to Vanderbilt last week.
The Wildcats followed up their only other loss this year (to South Carolina) by taking Georgia to the wire.
Graham Mertz is a good quarterback whose season-ending injury will severely hurt Florida’s passing attack.
The Gators will have to lean on Montrell Johnson in the run game, which doesn’t bode well against Kentucky’s swarming front seven, which ranks 14th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Conversely, Kentucky wants to establish the run (22nd nationally in rush rate), and the Wildcats should roll over Florida’s hapless front seven (92nd in Rush Success Rate allowed, 88th in EPA per Rush allowed).
MICHIGAN STATE (+5.5) over Iowa
Jonathan Smith is an underrated coach.
In time, he should be able to revive Michigan State’s football program.
Smith-led teams are 10-2 against the spread with eight or more days between games.
He’s an excellent game-planner.
The Spartans mercifully reached their bye last week after back-to-back games against top-five teams Ohio State and Oregon.
Extra time is extra valuable to an excellent game-planner, and after 15 days of scheming, I expect Smith and the Spartans to put together their best effort against a step down in competition.
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Iowa’s offense is improving, but the Hawkeyes’ downfield passing attack is still ineffective (113th nationally in EPA per Dropback) as they continue to rely on Kaleb Johnson in the ground game.
Smith has already reformed Sparty’s front seven (30th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed).
You can still beat them over the top, but Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara has shown he’s incapable of doing it consistently.
I don’t know how quarterback Aidan Chiles and Sparty’s offense score against Iowa’s elite defense, but Iowa games are typically low-scoring, and 5.5 points are more than enough to snag in a points-at-a-premium Big Ten battle.
LAST WEEK: 1-1. Ole Miss (L), California (W).
2024 SEASON: 10-10
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.
