Giants aiming to return to postseason with Tony Vitello leading the way

Only one team has dethroned the Dodgers in the NL West over the past dozen seasons. The Giants, however, have moved on to their third manager since claiming the 2021 division title. Outside of that 107-win season, they’ve racked up four straight finishes within two games of .500.

They shook things up in a big way by bringing back beloved former catcher Buster Posey to run their baseball operations before last season. Posey took an even bigger leap this winter by hiring Tony Vitello.

The fiery former national champion at the University of Tennessee will become the first college coach ever to go straight into a major-league manager’s chair.

The question on everybody’s minds as Vitello’s first Opening Day approaches: Can it work?

Most important hitter: Rafael Devers

The Giants swung the biggest blockbuster of last season six weeks before the trade deadline, but they skidded to a 40-50 finish after acquiring Rafael Devers from the Red Sox and missed the postseason for the eighth time in nine years. Now acclimated to San Francisco — and with his first-ever Cactus League spring training out of the way — Devers will be counted on to anchor what’s shaping up to be the Giants’ most stable lineup in years. It just might carry them back to October.

Most important pitcher: Landen Roupp

Posey opted for duct tape over plastic surgery for a starting rotation that ended last season with three reliable arms, signing veteran journeymen Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser to short-term deals. The duo looks capable enough of holding down the third and fourth rotation spots behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. So the fate for the fifth spot falls on the Giants’ group of young arms. Landen Roupp, 26, looks to be the most promising candidate.

Will have a bigger year than expected: Patrick Bailey

Maybe not at the plate, but behind the dish, where Patrick Bailey will increase his value even more through the introduction of the Automated Ball Strike (ABS) challenge system. The Giants’ catcher already rated as the best defender in the game for his pitch framing. There was some concern a fully automated zone could negate that skillset, but the challenge system has had quite the opposite effect. Bailey’s understanding of the strike zone made him one of the best in Cactus League play at challenging balls and strikes.

Most likely to disappoint: Luis Arraez

With Jung Hoo Lee, the Giants already possess one contact-orientated table setter ahead of Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman in the heart of their order. Signing Luis Arraez, the three-time batting champ, fit squarely in that vision. Asking him to play second base is where it goes awry, particularly with a pitching staff aced by one of the majors’ top sinkerballers. Arraez was a poor second baseman when he last played the position regularly in 2023, and the Padres mostly stashed him away at first base the past two years.

Key call up: Bryce Eldridge

It’s possible that Bryce Eldridge breaks camp with the big-league club, but the Giants would be smart to give the 20-year-old first baseman some more seasoning at Triple-A. The 6-foot-7 slugger has shown he can hit the ball harder than just about anybody. He needs to prove that he can do it consistently at the highest level. Eldridge has only played 84 games above Double-A. He spent the final two weeks of last season with the big-league club. It’s only a matter of time before he’s back for good. Then, the conversation turns to where he plays.

Biggest managerial decision

Everything Tony Vitello does will be scrutinized under a microscope. That’s the reality of trying to go straight from NCAA baseball to the big leagues. Vitello’s players have been feeling out how he will manage the clubhouse throughout spring training, but even they admit, they don’t know what to expect in terms of in-game strategy until the games actually count. Even the Bay Area’s relatively friendly media will have a field day the first time he pulls the wrong lever or, worse, looks like he doesn’t belong.

Don’t be surprised if…

The Giants have not only one hitter with more than 30 home runs but multiple. Infamously, the organization went two decades without one player reaching the threshold until Willy Adames slugged his 30th on the final day of last season. The last Giant with 30 was Barry Bonds, in 2004. That almost sounds silly considering this year’s projected lineup features Devers, Adames, Chapman and Heliot Ramos, any of whom is capable of leaving the yard 30 times.

Sure to make fans grumble

There’s no appetite left for any of the poor fundamentals that seemed to snowball as the Giants faded from contention last season. Among National League clubs, only the Rockies committed more errors in the field. On the base paths, they generated less value than any other club besides Colorado by running into outs and missing opportunities to pick up an extra base. Any mistake will only be more magnified with a first-year manager in the dugout.

How their season will end: 88-74

Either in a heap of pitching problems or their first playoff berth since 2021. If their pitching depth holds up — and their rookie manager deploys it correctly — the Giants won’t catch the Dodgers, but they are well-positioned to take advantage of down years from the Padres and Diamondbacks. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray provide a powerful one-two punch in a hypothetical wild-card series, but the Giants probably lack the pitching to make a deep postseason run.

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