It’s pretty much been all or nothing in the ALDS between the Guardians and Tigers.
Cleveland was first to draw blood with a 7-0 shutout in Game 1, but then the Tigers returned the favor with back-to-back 3-0 shutouts to take a 2-1 series lead.
According to the Associated Press, the last time a playoff series began with three straight shutouts was in 1905. Cleveland has now gone 20 straight innings without scoring a run.
Although the situation looks bleak for the Guardians, I’ll share why they offer value in Game 4 on Thursday with their backs against the wall.
Guardians vs. Tigers odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | -120 | -1.5 (+155) | o6.5 (-110) |
| Tigers | +100 | +1.5 (-190) | u6.5 (-110) |
Guardians outlook
Tanner Bibee will make his second start of the series after getting the nod in Game 1. Despite having a 5-0 lead when he left the game, Bibee didn’t pitch deep enough to qualify for the win.
It’s not that he pitched poorly. Manager Stephen Vogt simply decided to turn the game over to his bullpen after Detroit’s Parker Meadows reached base in the fifth inning with a single.
In 4 ⅔ innings of work, Bibee threw 76 pitches, scattered four hits and finished with six strikeouts.
Perhaps Vogt was already thinking ahead for later in the series by keeping his right-hander fresh and not exhausting his pitch count.
The Guardians already have a ton of confidence in the California native after naming him their starter for Game 1. After all, Bibee posted a respectable 3.47 ERA with a 3.56 FIP. He also led Cleveland pitchers with a Wins Above Replacement value of 3.3.
In his last three outings against the Tigers (15 ⅔ innings), he’s surrendered just three runs.
Tigers outlook
There are undoubtedly fine margins in this series, considering neither team has swung a hot bat. As a result, it’s difficult to get too excited about the Tigers in this spot.
Detroit is just one game away from the ALCS despite Tarik Skubal (6.3) being the only starting pitcher with a WAR value above 1.2. It’s been a bit of smoke and mirrors regarding how the Tigers have put together these wins.
Manager A.J. Hinch, a former catcher, is known for his creativity and ability to manage pitchers. He’s been able to push the right buttons by mixing and matching his bullpen arms.
Game 4 will likely be the third time he’ll employ his “pitching chaos” in this series, with an opener and bulk-reliever strategy.
Detroit is essentially on a free roll with Skubal lined up to pitch Game 5, if necessary. Thus, there’s a chance the Tigers could get a bit complacent with their ace and Cy Young favorite waiting in the wings.
One would have to think the Guardians will find a way to scratch at least one run and avoid a third straight shutout. If they’re successful, it could open up the floodgates to forcing a Game 5.
Guardians vs. Tigers pick
Had Cleveland managed to plate a run amidst a loss in Game 3, I’d probably be looking to make a case for the Tigers to close out the series in front of their fans on Thursday night.
However, with this scoreless skid still looming, the Guardians are in such a unique spot that they now offer more value.
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Historically, MLB favorites off back-to-back shutouts are 104-46 (69.3%) on the moneyline. If we adjust our parameters to include only short road favorites at -130 or lower, their performance improves to 29-7 (80.6%), and this angle is currently on a 7-0 run.
We only have to lay -120 with Cleveland at BetMGM, which is well within our range to warrant a play on the visitors.
Best bet: Guardians moneyline (-120, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
