Dillon Gabriel is on pace to break Bo Nix’s record.
Nix became a Heisman finalist a season ago as he set the NCAA record for completion percentage. Nix was 364-of-470 passing in 2023 as he completed 77.45% of his throws to break Mac Jones’ record of 77.36%.
After Nix left for the NFL, Gabriel transferred to Oregon for his final season of college football and is somehow completing a greater percentage of passes than Nix did. Through five games so far, Gabriel has completed 77.8% of his passes and is 130-of-167 passing for 1,449 yards.
Gabriel always seemed like a perfect fit in Oregon’s offensive scheme once he announced his intention to transfer. He completed 69% of his passes a season ago and threw for a career-high 3,660 yards in 12 games for the Sooners. He even became the betting favorite for the Heisman over the summer.
However, Gabriel hasn’t asserted himself as a Heisman favorite so far. Players like Ashton Jeanty and Travis Hunter have starred in non-quarterback roles, Cam Ward has led Miami to an undefeated start after transferring from Washington State, and Jalen Milroe has continued his growth as a passer in his first season playing for Kalen DeBoer at Alabama.
All four of those players are ahead of Gabriel (+1400) in BetMGM’s odds, though Gabriel has a great chance to leapfrog all of them with a statement game on Saturday night.
The No. 3 Ducks host No. 2 Ohio State in the first top-three matchup of the season. The Buckeye defense enters the game allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for just 130 yards a contest and only Marshall and Michigan State have thrown for TDs.
Gabriel is also coming off his worst game of the season. He threw two picks and completed just 63% of his throws in Oregon’s Friday night win over Michigan State in Week 6 after completing over 80% of his throws in each of the Ducks’ first three games of the season.
If Gabriel can approach or surpass that 80% mark against Ohio State, it’s hard to see how Oregon loses on Saturday night, or how Gabriel won’t be the frontrunner for the Heisman at the midpoint of the season.
Here are four other players we’re keeping our eye on ahead of Week 7.
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty: We’re already running out of superlatives for Jeanty’s performances this season. He’s the deserved Heisman favorite ahead of Boise State’s game at Hawaii as he’s averaging nearly 11 yards a carry and is the only running back to cross the 1,000-yard mark so far this season. Just look what he did on his first carry against Utah State.
If you want some perspective on how much better Jeanty has been than his peers, he’s 260 yards ahead of Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, the No. 2 rushing leader. Johnson and North Carolina’s Omari Hampton are the only two other running backs who have more than 700 yards rushing and only 13 players have run for over 600 yards this season. Marshall’s A.J. Turner is the only other running back averaging over 10 yards a carry, but he’s rushed 42 times so far this season. Jeanty has 95 carries and may not play the entire game Saturday night against Hawaii if the Broncos jump out to a big early lead.
Colorado DB/WR Travis Hunter: How sustainable is Hunter’s production level on both sides of the ball? We’re about to find out as Colorado gets into the meat of its schedule. The Buffaloes host No. 18 Kansas State late Saturday night before a trip to Arizona in Week 8. Hunter is the team’s leading receiver with 46 catches for 561 yards — no other Colorado player has more than 23 catches — and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions.
Penn State QB Drew Allar: The junior has shown real growth in his first season under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Allar is completing almost 71% of his passes and averaging 10.7 yards a throw. He completed less than 60% of his passes a season ago and only averaged 6.8 yards an attempt. Penn State’s offense hasn’t relied on him to throw the ball a lot so far; the 24 passes he threw in Week 6 against UCLA were the most he’s attempted all season. But if he continues to be efficient and Penn State continues to win, look for Allar to get some Heisman votes like Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy did a season ago. The Nittany Lions play at USC on Saturday.
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier: The first-year starter has a great chance to vault into the thick of the Heisman discussion with a big performance against Ole Miss on Saturday night. Nussmeier isn’t the dual-threat that Heisman winner Jayden Daniels was a season ago, but he’s been a fantastic passer so far this season at a high volume. Nussmeier has attempted 198 passes over five games and has completed nearly 70% of those for 1,652 yards and 15 TDs to just four interceptions.
