In my piece last week on wide receiver production splits in Weeks 1-5 versus Weeks 6 to 10, I noted that Puka Nacua was one of the players who was much more productive on a per-game basis at the start of the season. Now, in fairness, he was the WR1 overall in the first five weeks, so he had nowhere to go but down from there and then he got hurt in Week 6. Both of those variables are doing some heavy-lifting here.
However, there is more at play here than just simple regression and variance.
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One of the trends of this NFL season is how some of the best teams in football are weaponizing heavy personnel packages. For some teams in recent years, it’s been bringing in an extra offensive lineman for jumbo looks to boost their rushing efficiency. The Bills were the kings of this last season. For others who have maximized this further in 2025, they’re leaning into 12 and especially 13 personnel (two and three tight ends on the field, respectively) to get the opponent to match them in base defense, only to then throw the ball.
It’s a pretty simple equation. You want to bring the slower defenders, like the third linebacker, heavier edge players, etc., onto the field and get the traditional nickel defender off the field. Based on personnel tendencies, the vast majority of teams end up consenting to the offense’s desires.
It should be no surprise that one of the offenses that has really leaned into this the most are the Los Angeles Rams. Sean McVay often has this team on the forefront of innovation and it’s been clear for years how much he’s wanted to push the limit with multiple tight end packages. They’ve made tons of investments at that spot and were even rumored to be in the race to trade up for Brock Bowers in 2024 — there’s a fun dreamland to inhabit.
While none of their tight ends have emerged as consistent fantasy factors or star players just yet, the mismatches created by 13 personnel have been a big boost to the overall passing ecosystem.
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In particular, it’s made Matthew Stafford the rare pocket passer who is a weekly advantage as a fantasy football QB1. Stafford is the QB4 in points per game despite having -9 rushing yards on the season. Since Week 6, Stafford has thrown nine touchdowns out of 13 personnel and averages a whopping 11.7 adjusted yards per attempt. This shift is a huge reason why this offense is on fire right now, so it’s hard to see it being completely removed from the attack.
That does lead us, however, to a bit of an uncomfortable position with Nacua from a fantasy football projection standpoint.
Puka Nacua is being ‘victimized’ by 13 personnel
Before we go any further, let me be clear: In no way does any of this mean we should be fading Nacua or any of that nonsense. I’m simply explaining what’s going on here and why the outlook has shifted from his nuclear level start to 2025.
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In the first five weeks of the season, Nacua was on the field for just under 80% of the Rams’ snaps and ran a route on 85% of the dropbacks. He had a 36% share of the team’s targets.
Since Week 6, Nacua hasn’t cracked 70% of the snaps and his route participation numbers are as follows: 55%, 65%, 62% and 75%.
While injuries are impacting that Week 6 Ravens game and the Week 9 Saints win, that’s still a dramatic falloff. And the explanation is pretty simple. Since he returned from injury in Week 9, Nacua has played just six snaps in 13 personnel and has run zero routes. Rookie seventh-rounder Konata Mumpfield has run 11, veteran journeyman Xavier Smith has run two and Davante Adams has run 16. Since the team really leaned into 13 personnel in Week 7, Adams has been targeted on a whopping 44% of his routes run out that package, catching six passes for 46 yards and four touchdowns.
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It pays to be that isolated wide receiver in heavier personnel packages. The fewer wideouts on the field, the more likely that one of the top receivers ends up being the targeted player.
Considering the Rams average a whopping 23 plays per game out of 13 personnel — the Steelers and Arthur Smith are, of course, second at only 10.8 — that is a good chunk of snaps we’re just wiping off the table for Nacua. It’s not not a significant data point when we’re projecting him the rest of the season, if this usage holds.
But that “if” is a rather key variable.
As a team, the Rams average 0.15 EPA per play in 13 personnel and a 52% success rate. Both rank inside the top four this season. We’ve shown it’s been a dynamic wrinkle and something that’s boosted their offensive efficiency. However, when we just look at 11 personnel, the Rams rank third with a 0.18 EPA per dropback and first with a 54.8% success rate since Week 6. They’ve been even more efficient when they get three wideouts on the field. In his last three games, Nacua has run a route on 96%, 92% and 96% of the team dropbacks out of 11 personnel and averaged 3.6 yards per route.
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The NFL is all about moves and countermoves. If we can reference the chart I posted on X above, Seattle showed that when you match the Rams’ 13 personnel with nickel, you can defang some of what they do out of these looks. Now, Seattle is uniquely positioned to do exactly that, as they don’t change their personnel on the vast majority of their defensive looks and can pull that off because rookie Nick Emmanwori has the size to play in the box against the run and coverage athleticism to hang with slot receivers. Not every team will be able to stifle the Rams in this way. However, the Rams also know they need to continue to zig as teams expect them to zag.
I don’t expect the Rams to shelve 13 personnel completely. However, I won’t be shocked if it becomes something for a 20%-25% play rate wrinkle that they use, rather than push over 40% of the snaps. That still matters on the margins for Nacua if we’re breaking ties between ranking him as the runaway WR1 overall rest of season, or simply an obvious top 8-10 option.
McVay has forgotten more football than any of us will ever know. He is aware that there will be a moment when it comes time to pivot off the original 13-personnel wrinkle. There’s no doubt in my mind that we’ll see the Rams lean back into 11 personnel more as the season progresses and that will keep Nacua closer to his usual route participation numbers. They have one of the most unique wide receiver rooms in the NFL that allows them to almost blur the lines between 11 and 12 personnel — because they employ a receiver like Nacua. By the way, outside of wanting to conserve his oft-banged-up body, I see no reason why the tenacious Nacua, who has become a high-end man-beater as an outside receiver, can’t function as that isolation receiver in heavy personnel.
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One way or another, I’d be stunned if Nacua doesn’t consistently get his the rest of this season.
To close things out, as with most things in football, all this matters, but only so much. Nacua is an elite player and there’s usually little need to fret on whether those guys will remain fixtures of their offensive ecosystems. This won’t be one of those cases.