He’s back! Six-time All-Star Jayson Tatum is expected to make his season debut on Friday against the Dallas Mavericks, just 10 months after tearing his right Achilles, sources told ESPN’s Shams Charania.
Tatum, who suffered the injury late in Game 4 of the Boston Celtics‘ second-round playoff series against the New York Knicks, will join a Celtics team that has far surpassed preseason expectations, and is No. 2 in a wide-open Eastern Conference with just weeks to go in the regular season.
Why is Tatum returning now? How does his return impact the title race? How could it change the offseason for the Celtics?
Our NBA insiders answer the five biggest questions surrounding the improbable return of the 2024 NBA champion.
Why is Tatum returning now, and what can the Celtics expect?
He’s returning because his goal has always been to be able to play meaningful basketball this season.
That’s why Tatum had surgery the morning after he tore his Achilles at Madison Square Garden, before swelling set in that would’ve cost him another month.
It was something he learned from studying the experience of his idol, Kobe Bryant, who detailed his recovery from an Achilles injury in a documentary.
For many months, Tatum wasn’t sure he’d be ready this season. There were still boxes he had to check — most importantly the mental one, about trusting his body again. But by attacking his rehabilitation the way he has, Tatum has given himself this chance to come back and contribute to the Celtics’ playoff run. — Ramona Shelburne
How should we expect the Celtics to change on the court with Tatum’s return?
Tatum has led the Celtics in shot attempts in each of the past six seasons; the last Celtics player to shoot the ball more frequently than Tatum was Kyrie Irving in 2018-19. So with such a high-volume player reentering the Boston rotation, one of the biggest questions is how Jaylen Brown will adjust, as he has entered the fringes of the MVP conversation by taking on a much greater responsibility in Tatum’s absence.
Last season, Brown ranked 23rd among qualified players in usage rate (28.9%), but in 2025-26, he has jumped to second in the league (36.5%), behind only Luka Doncic. It’s possible there is some initial strife as the two stars navigate their new balance, with Brown ascendant and Tatum returning from a debilitating injury.
The addition of such a dynamic offensive force should benefit Brown and his teammates, however, even if they sacrifice some volume to Tatum; there’s still room to grow, even as the Celtics rank second as a team in offense. Among 123 players with at least 500 shot attempts this season, according to GeniusIQ, Payton Pritchard ranks 58th in shot quality, Derrick White ranks 94th and Brown ranks 101st. Last season, in contrast, all three players got easier looks while playing next to Tatum. — Zach Kram
How much different are the Celtics from last season’s team?
Dramatically so. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday were traded, and Luke Kornet and Al Horford left in free agency, removing four key pieces from Boston’s 2024 title run. And, of course, the Celtics have been without Tatum since he got hurt last May.
But Boston has far exceeded all expectations — at least all external expectations — thanks to a combination of impressive play by its veterans and strong growth from its younger players.
Neemias Queta has emerged as a solid starting center on one of the best value deals in the league, and the young trio of Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman and rookie Hugo Gonzalez has given coach Joe Mazzulla consistent energy on the wings in Tatum’s absence.
Meanwhile, Tatum returns to a core of Brown, whose play has earned him a spot in the thick of the MVP race; Derrick White, who’s averaging career highs in points, assists, steals and blocks per game; and Payton Pritchard, who, in more than 32 minutes per game, is having the best season of his career, averaging nearly 17 points, four rebounds and five assists. — Tim Bontemps
How could his return impact the Eastern Conference playoff race?
Our Basketball Power Index (BPI) has been watching Tatum’s promised return date of April 1 (then March 15, and now it’s March 6), so its predictions already had his return built in. That’s why their chances stand at 45% for a top two seed in the East, the clear favorite to get that spot.
So, in terms of prediction, Tatum’s return doesn’t really affect anything. It was already baked in. If it wasn’t built in, BPI would only have the Celtics as having about a 35% chance of getting that top spot. So the Knicks and the Cavs would have had an easier route.
In reality, the shock that Tatum brings to the race now, though, is nowhere near the shock that the whole Celtics team brought to the Eastern Conference for the season up until now.
Remember, at the start of the year, the C’s had a 50% chance at just making the playoffs. Those players who brought them this far are still there; they just need to get a bunch of reps with Tatum before the postseason begins. — Dean Oliver
How does his return impact the Celtics’ offseason approach?
Do not expect a repeat performance of last summer, when Boston dramatically cut salary.
The departures of Porzingis, Holiday, Horford and Kornet not only resulted in the Celtics reducing their payroll from a projected $540 million to $187 million, but balanced out their finances in future years as well.
Trading Anfernee Simons for Nikola Vucevic, along with three minor deals at February’s deadline, pushed Boston under the luxury tax for the first time since 2021-22.
With 11 players under contract this offseason, including Tatum, Brown and White, Boston is $21 million under the luxury tax and comfortably below both aprons. The Celtics also have their own first-round pick and a second-rounder from Milwaukee in June’s draft.
The big decision will come at the center position.
Vucevic is an unrestricted free agent, and Queta has a $2.7 million team option. Boston could exercise the option of Queta and re-sign Vucevic while remaining under the luxury tax — and both aprons. The Celtics would then be allowed to give Queta an extension for up to four years and $93 million. The first season of the extension would start in 2027-28. — Bobby Marks
