The 2025 college football season kicks off in style Saturday afternoon with a new chapter of “Farmageddon” between Iowa State vs. Kansas State, live from beautiful Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland.
Both teams check into Week 0 inside the Top 25, with Kansas State sitting at No. 17 in the AP’s initial poll and Iowa State ranked 22nd.
Most sportsbooks have the Wildcats pegged as a co-favorite to win the Big 12 with the likes of Arizona State and Texas Tech, but a loss to Iowa State on Saturday would essentially cause the bookies to swap these two teams (Iowa State is the seventh-choice at the majority of shops) in that market.
As you’d expect, given how tight things project to be in the Big 12, there isn’t much breathing room with this spread.
Kansas State is a three-point favorite, and there was resistance in the market when the Wildcats moved to -4 in the days leading up to the trip to the Emerald Isle.
Iowa State vs. Kansas State odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | +3 | +135 | Over 51 (-110) |
| Kansas State | +3 | -160 | Under 51 (-110) |
It’s not surprising that there was some early love for the Wildcats, as they have garnered some significant support in the Big 12 market and as a potential College Football Playoff gatecrasher.
Meanwhile, there isn’t much hype around Iowa State even though the Cyclones are coming off an 11-win season and a trip to the Big 12 Championship.
Matt Campbell has this machine humming along, but they just can’t get over the hump.
The Cyclones would lose to Arizona State, marking the 112th year in a row without a conference title for Iowa State. Hard to imagine.
Iowa State ranks inside the top 50 in the country in returning production, and the offense will be guided by the steady hand of Rocco Becht.
The lack of explosiveness could hold the Cyclones back, but this isn’t a unit that projects to beat itself.
The real red flag is on defense, where Iowa State will need to replace plenty of starters all over the place. That could be a problem against a Kansas State offense that has the potential to run riot this season.
Led by quarterback (and sleeper Heisman candidate) Avery Johnson, the Wildcats project to have one of the best offenses in the conference — and potentially the country.
Johnson can win you games on his own, in multiple ways, but he did have the occasional dud in 2024. With a year of experience under his belt, the sky is the limit for the well-coiffed quarterback.
While the Cyclones could be lacking for explosive plays, don’t be shocked if Kansas State is able to strike quickly with Johnson keeping the defense honest with his ability to take off, especially on third-and-medium plays.
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These games in Ireland can get funky – we saw Northwestern shock Nebraska and Georgia Tech stun Florida State in previous iterations – but this one feels pretty straightforward in my eyes.
The upside of Kansas State makes them a candidate to not only cover this number, but run away with this game, while Iowa State just doesn’t have as many paths to success.
We’ll lay it with the Wildcats in Farm O’Geddon.
The Play: Kansas State -3 (-115, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
