On Friday night, UCLA hosts Iowa in what should be a fascinating Big Ten battle.
This will be the first meeting between these teams since the 1986 Rose Bowl when UCLA won, 45-28.
The Hawkeyes have won three of their last four games thanks to a resurgent offense, while the Bruins are riding a two-game road winning streak back to Los Angeles.
Iowa vs. UCLA odds
(9 p.m. ET, FOX)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | -6.5 (-110) | -245 | Over 44.5 (-110) |
| UCLA | +6.5 (-110) | +200 | Under 44.5 (-110) |
When Iowa has the ball
In Tim Lester’s first year as Iowa’s offensive coordinator, the Hawkeyes have one of the most improved offenses in the country.
After scoring just 15.4 points per game last year, the second-worst in the FBS, Iowa ranks 45th with 30.8 points per game this year.
The key has been the play of running back Kaleb Johnson, who ranks second in the FBS with 1,279 rushing yards and first with 20 rushing touchdowns.
At quarterback, former Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan will get his second start for Iowa as Cade McNamara remains out with a concussion.
Sullivan hasn’t logged a turnover-worthy play on 37 dropbacks this year and he gives the Hawkeyes a different dimension with his rushing ability. UCLA ranks 131st in the country in PFF’s pass rush grades, so expect a clean pocket for Sullivan to work with.
Overall, the Hawkeyes should find success, whether on the ground or through the air. UCLA ranks 116th in points per drive allowed and 122nd in overall defensive success rate.
With weather not expected to play a role in this game, expect Iowa’s offense to continue humming.
When UCLA has the ball
After facing a brutal schedule earlier this season that included Indiana, LSU, Oregon and Penn State, UCLA was somewhat undervalued in the market.
The Bruins are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last three games, including two outright wins on the road over Rutgers and Nebraska. Ethan Garbers is playing his best football of the season — over the last two games, he’s thrown for 602 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The Bruins’ offensive line remains a sore spot — according to PFF, they rank sub-100th nationally in both run and pass-blocking.
That’s resulted in the UCLA offense ranking 107th in early downs EPA/play, setting up the 91st-ranked average third-down distance. That could create problems for Garbers against an Iowa defense that ranks 25th in pass-rush and 5th in coverage.
UCLA lacks skill position talent, and its running backs have exceeded 50 yards in a game just once all season. Iowa ranks 13th in run defense EPA, so it’s tough to imagine that changing.
Freshman wide receiver Kwazi Gilmer has been a breakout talent, catching a 48-yard touchdown against Nebraska last week, but this isn’t an imposing wide receiver room.
Iowa vs. UCLA prediction
If your market offers college football player props, I’d consider the over on sophomore tight end Zach Ortwerth’s yards.
Starters Luke Lachey and Addison Ostrenga have missed time with injuries, and Ortwerth has flashed impressive talent, catching three passes for 66 yards last week. He seems to have great chemistry with Sullivan as well.
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I expect Iowa to continue its offensive success under the Friday night lights, and I lean toward them covering the spread.
However, my favorite bet in this game is Iowa’s team total over 26.5 points. The Hawkeyes have scored 40-plus points in three of their last four games and have averaged 38.5 points in wins this season.
With the Hawkeyes installed as road favorites, bet on their offense continuing to score points Friday.
Best Bet: Iowa Team Total Over 26.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
