The perception that the Islanders are a franchise stuck in neutral is well-hardened after another season without winning a playoff series and another offseason without an overhaul of the roster.
It’s a lot less clear than in the past, however, whether that perception is correct.
The addition of Anthony Duclair in free agency completes a top line that has been one player short since the Islanders dealt for Bo Horvat at the 2023 All-Star Break.
Signing Maxim Tsyplakov from Russia was not a guarantee of anything, but the Islanders are hopeful he can do the same for the second line as Duclair does for the first line after scoring 31 goals in the KHL last season and putting together a solid camp.
Jettisoning Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin (who is still around on a professional tryout contract but won’t start the season on the roster) not only changed the makeup of the dressing room, but allowed the Islanders to hold a real training camp competition for bottom-six playing time that will likely carry into the season.
Oh, and Patrick Roy will be behind the bench for all 82 games.
That isn’t a full-on rebuild. But it is a much different flavor than the Isles had a year ago.
Whether that’s enough to turn the Islanders into a real contender in the Metropolitan Division, only time will tell. There are still a few too many “ifs” that must pan out for the Isles to truly be comfortable.
If Ilya Sorokin can bounce back off a disappointing season and back surgery to play like a potential Vezina Trophy winner, if Duclair and Tsyplakov both click right away, if the blue line stays healthy and if the cadre of 32-and-over core players — Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri, Casey Cizikas — can avoid dropping off, then the Islanders can surprise a lot of people.
And if all that is enough to make you hold off believing until you see it, then you’ve got a pretty fair point.
Offense
Having three different players (Nelson, Horvat, Kyle Palmieri) hit the 30-goal mark, Mat Barzal scoring a point per game and Noah Dobson breaking out as one of the league’s premier offensive defensemen made for real progress on this front last season, as the Islanders had their best per-game scoring season since 2017-18.
Doug Weight’s last year behind the bench, however, is still the last time they averaged over three goals per game, so the celebrations were limited.
With their high-end players performing up to snuff at five-on-five, the next step for the Islanders is for the power play and bottom six to start contributing their fair share. That should be made easier by the additions of Duclair and Tsyplakov, whose presence (in addition to adding two good scorers) allows Roy to create two relatively even power play units and a deeper overall lineup.
This version of the Islanders is still going to be held up by goaltending and defense, but this should be their most talented offensive group in a while.
Defense
The Islanders’ struggles under Lane Lambert last season were directly linked to a drop-off in defensive principles and much of Roy’s success came down to getting them back on track in their own zone.
Over the entire season, the 9.58 high-danger chances per 60 the Islanders allowed at five-on-five under Roy would have ranked fifth in the league, their 2.4 expected goals allowed per 60 would have ranked 10th and their 2.12 goals against per 60 would have ranked sixth.
This was nothing short of a massive transformation, and one that should only be amplified by Roy having a full training camp and healthy defense corps to work with.
The penalty kill, which was historically awful last season, is the big question mark.
Assistant coach Doug Houda, in charge of four-on-five play last season, was fired and replaced by Lou Lamoriello acolyte Tommy Albelin, who is bringing back the “flush” system under which the Isles had success while Barry Trotz was the head coach. If they can get back to even just league average on the PK, it would net a lot of points the Islanders left on the table last season.
GOALTENDING
Two things that are both true:
1. The Islanders are better equipped to deal with injury in net than in the past after signing Marcus Hogberg as the organization’s third goaltender.
2. If Sorokin misses time or isn’t back to playing at a high level after offseason back surgery, it is a serious blow to this team’s prospects.
With Sorokin having just returned to skate with the full team, when he makes it back into games and what to expect when he does is an open question.
Semyon Varlamov is perfectly capable of handling No. 1 duties in net — just look at what he did at the end of last season — which means the Isles shouldn’t feel compelled to rush Sorokin. Hogberg is not going to light the world on fire, but the Swede is a capable third option, which the franchise hasn’t had the past few years.
Still, the situation around the franchise goalie is the biggest issue hanging over the organization right now. Sorokin lost the net at the end of last season, got pulled from his only playoff start and had offseason back surgery. He is in the first of an eight-year contract that pays him $8.25 million annually. There will be questions here until he answers them with his play.
Coaching
The first full season with Roy behind the bench promises to be entertaining and — if the way the Isles finished last season under Roy is any indication — a pretty big improvement.
Roy’s takeover in January led to a surprise run to the playoffs. He ran a hard training camp designed to keep raising the bar, with a focus on winning battles and endurance, as well as driving home a system that the Islanders had no choice but to learn on the fly last season.
There’s no doubt that Roy is one of the most unique coaches to play for in the NHL, and the spotlight will be on him throughout the season. It should be fascinating to watch unfold.
Most important offensive player
Duclair played for eight different teams in his 10-year career before the Islanders handed him a four-year deal to complete their top line with Barzal and Horvat. The trio flashed some chemistry during the preseason and the Islanders are hopeful Duclair can be a permanent solution to a lineup spot that nobody could grab hold of last season.
Most important defensive player
Adam Pelech has missed time with injuries in both of the last two years and last season was the first time since his rookie year that he was on for more goals against than goals for at five-on-five. He’s set to get some extended runway playing with longtime partner Ryan Pulock — can that spark him into playing like the shutdown defenseman the Islanders need him to be?
Key rookie
What can Tsyplakov do and how soon can he do it? The answer is going to determine a lot about the Islanders’ season. If the Russian can walk into a top-six role and score goals quickly, it solves a major hole on the depth chart. If not, the Islanders will be looking for scoring at the trade deadline again.
Key coaching decisions
The penalty kill is not a sexy topic, but changing the four-on-five system needs to work. The Islanders cannot expect to be taken seriously as a contender if their PK hovers around 70 percent.
Prediction
The Islanders will lock up a playoff berth before the final week of the season. But they will be disappointed by a third straight first-round exit.
