The Islanders have collected two wins in their last three games while playing without numerous key skaters.
Top forward Mathew Barzal will remain sidelined for another month, as will defender Adam Pelech, who has averaged 20 minutes of ice time per game this year.
We always see this narrative in the NHL and across all sports. Players are able to step up and succeed in elevated roles for a night or two, but they aren’t always able to do so over a larger sample.
The Islanders managed a miraculous comeback to beat a Penguins side that looked like a complete train wreck on Tuesday, but a matchup in Ottawa on the road should prove more difficult.
Islanders vs. Senators odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Islanders | +130 | +1.5 (-220) | Over 6 (-105) |
| Senators | -155 | -1.5 (+180) | Under 6 (-115) |
Islanders vs. Senators prediction
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Injuries aside, there is an argument to be made that the Islanders‘ 5-6-2 record oversells their level of play thus far.
They have played a softer-than-average schedule and have managed just two regulation wins in 13 matchups.
They also hold an -8 goal differential.
The Senators have struggled to find consistency in the early going of new coach Travis Green’s tenure but, at their best, have looked solid in all facets of the game.
They hold a +5 goal differential and have played to a 51.26% expected goal share this season.
Last year was supposed to be the year the Senators’ rebuild was finalized with a playoff berth, but they greatly underachieved expectations, largely due to a second-worst .884 save percentage.
Adding superstar netminder Linus Ullmark from Boston was supposed to solve the Senators’ goaltending woes.
But, to this point, Ullmark has struggled to a -3.5 GSAx and .891 save percentage. If Ullmark can find his form, the Sens should be a formidable opponent, as there is a lot to like elsewhere on the roster.
The Senators have scored 3.58 goals per game this season and have generated the fifth-most shots on goal in the league.
With Josh Norris’s healthy, they feature a well-rounded top-six and one of the league’s more dynamic powerplay units.
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The Islanders have confirmed that backup Semyon Varlamov will start in this matchup. He has played to a -1.0 GSAx and .875 save % in five appearances this season.
While Varlamov’s strong history suggests he is better than those numbers indicate, he is a downgrade compared to Ilya Sorokin, who has been brilliant early on this season.
The Senators should be able to carry the majority of the play in this matchup versus a depleted Islanders side, and will likely receive better play from Ullmark moving forward.
At -160 or better, I see value in backing the Senators to pay off as home favorites in this matchup.
Best Bet: Senators ML (-150, bet365) | Play to ML (-160)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.
