Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract shattered every conception of how large a baseball contract can be. And then, one year later, Juan Soto surpassed it in every conceivable way.
It is 15 years, $765 million for the New York Mets’ newest slugger. Unlike Ohtani’s, the deal contains no deferred money. Unlike Ohtani’s, the deal contains escalators that could push the total value into the $800 million range. Unlike Ohtani’s, the deal has an opt-out, which the Mets can void by kicking in another $40 million.
Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, got everything they could have wanted, and the result is the largest contract in the history of sports.
Ohtani’s record getting broken after one season is stunning but perhaps not that surprising, given that we knew Soto’s payday was coming. The question that arises now, however, is when will the next Juan Soto emerge in free agency? Which MLB player could possibly touch $765 million?
To figure that out, we’re going to go through future free-agent classes and try to figure out which player is on track for a mega-deal down the road.
It’s not particularly difficult to figure out which players might enter the elite tier of free-agent contracts. They have to be position players because no team is going to devote that kind of money to a pitcher with non-adamantium tendons, and they have to be young, like Soto is at age 26.
And, of course, they have to be very, very good.
2026 top MLB free agent: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
In next year’s class, the top name projects to be a good friend of Soto’s: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Toronto Blue Jays tried to unite the two but lost out to the Mets’ sheer financial might under owner Steve Cohen. Guerrero figures to see a deal somewhere around $300 million — nowhere close to Soto. He might also hit free agency at age 26, but he’s not as good of a hitter as Soto, and he plays a position lower on the defensive spectrum.
Other than Guerrero, we’re talking about guys such as Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez.
2027 top MLB free agent: Tarik Skubal
This class is starting to look awfully pitcher-heavy, with Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet serving as headlines. As spectacular as Skubal was this year, he will also be a 30-year-old with an injury history that includes Tommy John surgery.
As for the position players, the group is looking pretty grim. Interested in Alec Bohm? Adolis García? Randy Arozarena? Some teams will be, but not enough to push those players anywhere close to the top bracket of deals. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies are both technically free agents this winter, but the Atlanta Braves will have club options on both.
2028 top MLB free agent: Adley Rutschman
This could be the winter of the catcher, as Baltimore Orioles backstop Adley Rutschman is the big name, and he’ll be flanked by William Contreras of the Milwaukee Brewers and Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners.
Catcher is an important position, but its physical demands are punishing enough that teams rarely invest mega-contracts in backstops. Joe Mauer’s old deal is still the biggest at $184 million, which is essentially Willy Adames money. Rutschman is great, but he has a significant headwind if he wants to break into the next level of contracts.
Besides the catchers, you have Logan Gilbert, Steven Kwan, Ozzie Albies, Luis Robert Jr. and plenty more who won’t be touching Soto money.
2029 top MLB free agent: Gunnar Henderson
Here’s the big one. If you want a player who, like Soto, stars at a position that gets paid, will enter free agency with multiple years left in his 20s and employs Boras, the best answer in this entire exercise will probably be Gunnar Henderson, especially because his rookie classmate Bobby Witt Jr. already got paid.
Through three MLB seasons, Henderson has hit .268/.346/.504 while playing the most important non-battery position on the field. Everything about him screams huge free agent, and he’ll enter the 2029 offseason only one year older than Soto is now.
And yet, to surpass Soto, Henderson will a) need to maintain that bat for four more years while avoiding injury and b) need the MLB free-agent market to continue expanding. It is the highest of compliments to him that we’re even saying this is possible.
2030 top MLB free agent: Jackson Merrill? Elly De La Cruz?
Elly De La Cruz is an electric talent and also so strikeout-prone that it’s difficult to imagine teams will want to invest in him into his late 30s. Jackson Merrill had a great rookie season at age 21, but that’s about all we have to go on at this point.
These are guys who are two or fewer years into their MLB careers, which really goes to show how special a talent Soto is. By the end of his second year, Soto was a career .287/.403/.535 hitter with a World Series ring and one of the game’s most advanced batting eyes. We already knew he would be getting an absurd amount of money, as did his team.
2031 top MLB free agent: Paul Skenes
Paul Skenes is shaping up to be MLB’s next ace, if he isn’t already, but, again, he’s a pitcher. Arm injuries are essentially a given for modern pitchers, and that’s why huge deals for them are rare. At this point, we just don’t know who the biggest free agent in this class will be, because it is six years from now.
Jackson Chourio would’ve been a great answer here after a fantastic rookie year in his age-20 season, but he already signed an eight-year extension with the Milwaukee Brewers.
This is why the New York Mets paid Juan Soto $765 million
Are you noticing a trend with these names? With the exception of Henderson, none of them seems on track to come anywhere close to Soto and Ohtani, which is why the Mets and Dodgers paid so much for their superstars.
When we say free agents such as Soto come around once in a generation, we aren’t hyperbolizing. Soto brings an incredible mixture of production, stability, youth, health and postseason production with every MLB big-market team having a use for him. How could we possibly expect a player like that to come around again?
If there’s only one telescope to see Halley’s Comet, rich people are going to fight one another for that telescope. And in this case, the next Soto — the next guy who will make us yell profanities at our phones after seeing the biggest number in sports contract history — probably hasn’t made his MLB debut yet.
The situation is analogous to Alex Rodriguez, who signed a 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers in 2000, a time when the contract record was $121 million. MLB wouldn’t see another contract worth $200 million, aside from the $275 million Rodriguez got when he opted out in 2007, until Albert Pujols’ $210 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels after the 2010 season.
It took a full decade for the market to catch up.
