It is almost certainly a win-and-in situation for Oklahoma on Saturday.
If the Sooners can beat LSU at home, they’ll earn themselves an at-large bid for the College Football Playoff.
Just being in this situation is a huge success for the Sooners, who were not given much of a chance of contending in the SEC after a disappointing 2024 campaign.
LSU vs. Oklahoma odds, prediction
While Oklahoma will end an encouraging regular season on Saturday, the opposite is true of LSU.
The Tigers (7-4, 3-4) were ranked inside the top-5 in the country after wins over Clemson, Louisiana Tech, and Florida, but things went south quickly for the Bayou Bengals.
Brian Kelly is gone, the AD resigned, and the football team will miss out on the College Football Playoff once again.
LSU’s injury report for Saturday is a mile long, as key players are opting out in order to focus on the NFL Draft. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is listed as doubtful. He has likely played his last game for the Tigers.
Nussmeier came into the season as a Heisman favorite, but was never able to get the offense going. And that may be a generous way of putting it. The Tigers grade out as the 75th-best offensive team in FBS, per SP+, this season, and have their defense to thank for getting them to 7-4.
The problem is that Oklahoma’s defense is even better, and will be playing for something other than pride.
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With Nussmeier almost certainly out, and the LSU roster in flux, this should not be a tough assignment for a Sonners defense that has kept several superior offenses in check.
Heck, even if Nussmeier plays, this doesn’t figure to be a tough day at the office for Oklahoma.
It can get dangerous to read too much into motivation, and perhaps we see LSU leave it all out there and relish the spoiler role, but this spot sets up perfectly for an Oklahoma blowout.
The Play: Oklahoma -10 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
