Just when the Dallas Mavericks look ready to turn the corner, an injury to Luka Doncic could potentially derail their progress.
Doncic is dealing with a strained wrist and the Mavericks expect he’ll be out of action for one week.
Dallas will put its three-game winning streak on the line when it visits the Denver Nuggets on Friday night.
Denver also appears to be on the ascent, with six victories in its last eight games.
However, it has been without the reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic, for the last three games due to a personal matter. Jokic’s availability is still up in the air, as the Nuggets list him as questionable on the injury report.
While it’s always difficult to make projections on a game when teams aren’t at full strength, the props market is an excellent option for determining which teammates will likely step up in the absence of a star player.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | +4 (-110) | +142 | o225.5 (-110) |
| Nuggets | -4 (-110) | -168 | u225.5 (-110) |
Mavericks analysis
The Mavericks are notorious for their slow starts, so it wasn’t entirely surprising to see their record fall to 5-7. However, most would say the combination of Doncic and Kyrie Irving are two of the most unguardable players in the league.
Thus, it would only be a matter of time before Dallas would regain its stride.
While the NBA season can be long and arduous, there are always a few games throughout the campaign that take on another level of importance.
For Dallas, its away victory (121-119) over the Thunder offered a similar significance because heading into the game, OKC had the best record in the West at 11-2.
Dallas followed up that performance with a 131-91 demolition over the New Orleans Pelicans.
If you overlook this Mavericks team, you do so at your peril.
The underlying metrics suggest they’re still very much a legitimate contender that can challenge and come out of the West.
Nuggets analysis
Denver rebounded from a 0-2 start to win seven of its next eight games.
However, it’s 1-2 in the last three games with Jokic sidelined. Jokic is having another MVP-caliber season, averaging a triple-double with 29.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 11.7 assists.
Per Basketball-Reference, Jokic also leads the league with a 33.3 Player Efficiency Rating and Win Shares per 48 minutes (.323).
Thus, the Nuggets don’t have anywhere close to a ready-made replacement that can fill Jokic’s shoes.
Although some felt Denver didn’t do enough in the offseason when building its roster, the Russell Westbrook experiment seems to work better than we might have anticipated.
Westbrook can still fill up the stats sheet, averaging 10.8 points, six assists and 4.5 rebounds. He recently recorded his 200th triple-double—the most in NBA history.
Forward Peyton Watson and guard Julian Strawther have also developed nicely off the bench, with both players averaging 9.5 points.
Like the Mavericks, the Nuggets will be just fine, but both teams would do well to have their star players back on the court.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets pick
Picking a side in this contest wouldn’t be easy, considering these teams are two of my favorites to watch.
Therefore, I’m happy to remain neutral by targeting a player in the props market.
When they landed Klay Thompson over the summer, the Mavericks saw an opportunity to add a knockdown shooter. Although Thompson is averaging a career-low with 14 points, he’s also attempting his fewest shots per game (12.6).
Doncic and Irving are ball-dominant players, so with one out of the lineup, Thompson figures to get more touches.
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The Nuggets are also a team Thompson can thrive against because they’re a bottom-10 defense. He’s averaging 20.3 points In his last 13 games when facing teams that this profile.
Thompson’s scoring prop is available at 16.5, which feels short given the opponent. It’s worth noting that he’s coming off a 19-point effort against the Pelicans.
Lastly, he’s had three games this season in which he produced back-to-back efforts of 17 or more points.
I expect that trend to continue Friday night.
THE PICK: Klay Thompson Over 16.5 points (-113, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
