The Mets are in the playoffs trying to make the playoffs. They are in the midst of a best-of-three weeks to try to earn entry to a best-of-three, wild card round series.
If you haven’t noticed — barring a startling run by the Cubs, Mariners or Red Sox — we know the identity of 11 of 12 postseason participants already.
Sure, there is jockeying, say, on if the Yankees or Orioles wins the AL East or who takes the AL Central. But there were 11 teams who began Saturday with at least an 81 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. The lone mystery involved the National League wild card.
“I hate to be scoreboard watching this early in the month, but every game is gonna kind of matter down the stretch,” said Phil Maton, who has been in the playoffs three of the last four seasons. “You don’t want to get to that last series of the year and be like, ‘Man, if we could have won a game here or there, we’d be in a different spot.’ ”
Look, even at this late date, the odds to make the playoffs can veer substantially with a run of success or failure. The Diamondbacks and Padres were among the 11 clubs with better than 80 percent playoff odds, but that feels more tenuous. Consider that the Mets went into Saturday riding an eight-game winning streak and their playoff percentage had risen from 13.1 to 49.1 percent during that stretch.
The Mets made up four games on the Braves during their tear to tie Atlanta for the final wild card spot but also made up 5 ¹/₂ on the Diamondbacks to move within 1 ¹/₂ games of the second wild card and three games on the Padres to move within three of the top wild card position.
The Mets cannot stay this hot the rest of the way, especially because the degree of difficulty of their schedule heightens beginning later this week with one of two series left against the Phillies. But really, this is about the top of the NL being on fire since the All-Star break and just who will cool and how much?
The six best second-half records in the majors belonged to NL clubs: the Padres (31-13, .705), Diamondbacks (30-15, .667), Dodgers (28-16, .636), Mets (28-18, .609), Brewers (25-18, .581) and Cubs (25-18, .581). The Braves also were over .500 (24-22), which is why the Mets could not more comfortably climb into a playoff spot. Instead, it has been a day-to-day October feel in the early days of September.
“We pretty much are, in a way [in the playoffs now],” said Francisco Lindor, whose 28 postseason games are second among current Mets to J.D. Martinez’s 33. “It is not exactly the same vibes as the playoffs, where you get that moment at the beginning to start fresh. But we are in that position where every day, every game, every inning matters and that is playoff baseball.”
Thus, every issue grows in magnitude with the season down to so few games. The Mets learned Saturday that Jeff McNeil had a small wrist fracture and would miss the rest of the regular season, at minimum. McNeil had revived since July 4 to lengthen the Mets lineup by hitting .280 with an .893 OPS.
But the Mets also had Kodai Senga throw another bullpen as he builds up after a calf strain. He is eligible to return from the 60-day injured list on Sept. 25, which is the middle of a three-game set in Atlanta that feels like a collision course for this year and within the Mets’ tortured history against the Braves. The Mets are hoping Senga can serve as a three- or four-inning opener in the waning days of the regular season and then, perhaps, in a playoff series.
But, again — as much as that Braves series lurks — the Mets have business from here to there. And it is a different form of business than was anticipated even four to six weeks ago, when the NL wild card picture was a snarl near .500. But the pretenders fell away and all that belief that this season would be like last when two 84-win teams (Arizona, Miami) made the playoffs has fallen away.
The Braves and Mets were on 88-win trajectories and it might take as much as 90 to get in.
“It’s four teams kind of in a wild card clump,” Maton said. “It is not the absolute do or die every night, but it is getting pretty close. Every bit of leverage you can get going down the stretch is pretty important. I hate to pinpoint a series, but obviously, that Atlanta series (next to last of the year) is looming and is going to be a huge series for us and so it is important for us to be rolling with some momentum going into that series.”
