Plenty of pundits, such as myself, thought the Dodgers pitching staff would get exposed in the postseason.
That’s now looking like a freezing-cold take.
After beating the Mets 9-0 on Sunday in Game 1 of the NLCS, the Dodgers extended their consecutive scoreless innings streak to 33, tying an MLB playoff record.
The record can be all theirs on Monday when they take on the Mets in Game 2 at Dodger Stadium. Here’s a prediction and pick for the game.
Mets vs. Dodgers Game 2 odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +124 | +1.5 (-180) | o8.5 (-110) |
| Dodgers | -148 | -1.5 (+150) | u8.5 (-110) |
Mets vs. Dodgers Game 2 prediction
The Dodgers’ relief staff pitched to a 3.07 ERA in the final month of the regular season, and they have carried that strong form into the playoffs.
In 24 1/3 innings in this postseason, their bullpen has a collective ERA of 2.22 and has been utterly dominant since falling down 2-1 in their NLDS series with the Padres.
Manager Dave Roberts will lean on that strength in Monday’s Game 2 against the Mets. The veteran skipper will employ a bullpen game and look to use ace Walker Buehler later in the series.
The decision makes sense since Roberts’ bullpen is in great shape. Evan Phillips is the only Dodgers reliever to throw more than nine pitches over the last three days.
After making a gamble starting Kodai Senga in Game 1, the Mets will turn to a much more reliable arm in Sean Manaea.
Manaea has allowed only three earned runs across 12 innings in the postseason. He now holds an ERA of 3.25 across his last 10 starts with a K/BB ratio of 22.6% in that span.
In those 10 starts, Manaea has reduced his zone-contact rate to 81.6% and increased his swinging-strike rate to 12.4%. He’s adjusted his arm slot and is mixing in a new-look sinker, which has been effective.
Manaea has allowed slug rates of .304 and .324, respectively, when working the first and second time through the order this season, but that number bumps to .430 when facing batters for a third time.
The Dodgers hold relatively equal splits at the plate versus lefties and righties this season. Since the All-Star break, they hold a wRC+ of 122 versus lefties, and rank 12th in BB/K with a 34.1% hard-hit rate.
The Mets have also hit to fairly balanced splits at the plate, with a 104 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching in the second half and a 110 wRC+ versus lefties in the same span.
Mets vs. Dodgers Game 2 pick
Roberts might not be in the worst spot here as looks to play the matchup game early on with his well-rested bullpen, which features a number of elite arms in good form.
The Dodgers get a tough matchup against Manaea, who has pitched like a legitimate ace over the last two months after making some notable adjustments.
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For a game at Dodger Stadium, a 4.5-run total for the first five innings is fairly high, and I’m not sure this matchup warrants it. At anything better than -125, I see value betting the first five under.
Best bet: Under 4.5 runs F5 Innings (115, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.
